Silly Season: Whole Lotta Shakin' Goin' On
5/31/2013
By Kevin Abraham
Looking at the last couple of years, there have not been many major driver changes in Sprint Cup. Most are locked in long term deals, and this past week, Paul Menard announced a three year extension to stay with Richard Childress Racing. This makes Mark Martin and Ryan Newman the most valuable free agents currently available this year. How might Silly Season shake out in 2013?
We already know that Stewart-Haas Racing has signed Kevin Harvick to drive starting in 2014. This leaves the question on what happens to Ryan Newman. Ryan signed a one year contract with Stewart-Haas for 2013. It would be surprising to see SHR expand to four cars, after struggling with the expansion to three cars this year. For this reason, perhaps Ryan Newman will be the odd man out. Newman could end up at Joe Gibbs Racing in the much rumored fourth car, or he could re-join Penske Racing driving the No. 12 car, leaving Sam Hornish, Jr. in Nationwide, or in a limited role in a fourth Penske car. One reason Newman could end up back with Penske is Quicken Loans, who is an associate sponsor for Penske on the IndyCar side, along with Newman’s sponsor at SHR for 18 races. They may consider consolidating their motor sports involvement, similar to what Target and Shell/Pennzoil are currently doing.
The next free agent to review is Mark Martin. Currently he drives part-time for Michael Waltrip Racing. It is widely speculated that Brian Vickers will drive the No. 55 full-time next year, leaving Martin without a ride. Based on past history, Martin will not retire, but will join another team, and try to help them improve, like he did with Ginn Racing in 2007, and MWR these past two years. There are two feasible options for Martin next year from this vantage point: either MWR starts a fourth team to be shared by Martin, Waltrip, and a third driver depending on sponsorship, or Martin will end up driving for Coach Joe Gibbs in a fourth JGR car. If Gibbs finally adds the fourth car, and goes with Martin, look for Gibbs to promote a KBM driver or two to drive this car part-time with Martin, or JGR could give a journeyman driver like Michael McDowell a shot in the fourth car. There are a couple of reasons McDowell might end up with that chance: one reason would be the fact both McDowell and Gibbs are devout Christians. Another reason would be McDowell's Nationwide driving record for Gibbs, with three top 5’s and nine top 10’s in ten races the last two years, along with his lowest finish in the ten races being 12th.
Looking at past history, both Jamie McMurray and Juan Pablo Montoya will probably return to Earnhardt-Ganassi Racing in 2014. Both have long running relationships with their sponsors, and both drivers have shown improvement in 2013. Look for a part-time third team for Kyle Larson to prepare him to drive for rookie of the year in 2015. If anything can be learned from Casey Atwood, Michael McDowell and David Stremme, promoting a talented driver too soon will ruin their career in Sprint Cup. Do not look for Chip Ganassi to ruin another driver, due to having Teresa Earnhardt as a partner, and watching how the old DEI developed Earnhardt Jr, Steve Park, and Martin Truex Jr.
Speaking of Dale Jr., there will be no changes over at Hendrick in the driver department, except Jimmie Johnson signing a lifetime contract like Jeff Gordon has currently.
In the Jack Roush stable, it is going to be interesting to see what happens with Trevor Bayne next year. Bayne is a talented driver, who really could use one more year in Nationwide to get more experience. More than likely Bayne will have a similar setup with the Wood Brothers with Bayne driving about half of the Sprint Cup races depending on sponsorship from Motorcraft. On the Nationwide side, keep in mind that Roush has been known for pulling the plug on developmental drivers such as Colin Braun, Erik Darnell Jr, Todd Kluever, Danny O’Quinn, Brian Ickler, and Stanton Barrett to name a few. Based on past history, Bayne is on the hot seat to keep his Nationwide ride with Roush, especially if Bayne does not start to win soon, or pull in enough sponsorship to cover the full year. Roush has started grooming other Nationwide drivers this year, like Travis Pastrana, Chris Buescher, and Ryan Reed, so they could be candidates for that seat. Don't be surprised to see the Sprint Cup No. 6 come out of mothballs later this year or in a limited role in 2014 with Travis Pastrana driving the car, even if Roush funds this entry out of pocket.
Speaking of Nationwide drivers, look for an announcement soon for the No. 3 to be brought back with Austin Dillon driving. Richard Childress could break his promise he made after Dale Earnhardt died to never race a black No. 3, especially if Austin's sponsor moves up with him. Look for Jeff Burton to be back in the No. 31 for two more years, until Ty Dillon is ready for Sprint Cup. Watch for Burton to retire after the 2015 year.
Finally, looking at some of the smaller teams, watch for Kurt Busch to stay at Furniture Row racing in 2014. Considering they have a good alliance with RCR, along with a sponsor that can deal with Kurt's temper, Kurt has a home with this team as long as he wants to stay there. Both Marcos Ambrose and Aric Almirola should re-sign with Richard Petty Motorsports this year as well. Don't be surprised to see Bobby Labonte step back from full-time driving as well after this year. JTG racing has been rumored to have financial issues, and if this team should fold or cut back from being a full-time team we will see Labonte retire, or drive for an underfunded team like his brother Terry does for FAS part-time. Some of the other teams will depend on sponsors for 2014, such as Tommy Baldwin Racing, Phil Parsons Racing, Humphrey-Smith racing, and Front Row Motorsports.
These are just predictions on how the 2013 Silly Season will shake out. Not too many major changes, along with not much new blood entering Sprint Cup next year.
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