Fast Forward ~ The Irwin Tools Night Race At Bristol Fantasy Race Picks And Preview
It
hasn’t been since week four since we have been to Bristol, and a lot has
happened since then. We’ve just come off
of Joey Logano’s third career win, at Michigan, learned that Tony Stewart will
be out of the seat for the rest of the year, Mark Martin will be his relief
except for Talladega when we will see Austin Dillon again, and Brian Vickers
will fill the seat for Mark Martin.
Newman won’t be back with Stewart-Haas, and Montoya won’t be back with Ganassi. It is the
Most Wonderful Time of the Year, and no, it’s not Christmas! It’s Silly Season! But before we get there, there are three
races remaining before the Chase For The Championship
field is set, and it’s Bristol Time!
The Track:
Bristol Motor Speedway
Location:
Bristol, Tennessee
Length:
.533 Mile Oval
Banking:
24-30 degrees in turns 1-2; 24-30 degrees in turns 3-4; 4-9 degrees on the
backstretch, 4-9 on the front
Pit
Road Speed: 30 MPH
The Race: The
Irwin Tools Night Race
500
Laps/ 266.5 Miles
Defending
Champion: Denny Hamlin
Most
recent winner: Kasey Kahne
Track
Record: Charlie Glotzbach, July 1971, 101.074 MPH
Race
Record: Charlie Glotzbach, July 1971, 101.074 MPH
Qualifying
Record: Kyle Busch, March 2013, 129.535 MPH
TV:ABC, 7:30PM EST
Radio:
SiriusXM 90, PRN (www.goprn)
The History:
July
30th, 1961- The first race at Bristol was the Volunteer 500, and was
run on Johnny Allen took the checkered flag, but he was driving in relief for
official race winner Jack Smith.
1969-Track
was reconfigured and remeasured. Banking was increased to 36 degrees.
1992-Speedway
surface was changed from asphalt to concrete.
1996-Track
owner Larry Carrier sold Bristol to Speedway Motorsports, Inc.
August
28th, 1999- Dale Earnhardt, Sr. becomes the oldest winner at the
track at 48 years, 3 months, 30 days.
March
25, 2007-Kyle Busch becomes the youngest winner at the track at 21 years, 10
months, 23 days.
August
2010-Kyle Busch becomes the first driver to sweep a three race weekend, winning
the Camping World Truck Series race on Wednesday, The Nationwide Series race on
Friday, and the Sprint Cup Series race on Sunday.
The
Contenders:
Who
do I think will have a shot to win at Bristol?
Brad
Keselowski: Keselowski still has to be a good pick here, even though
his early dominance has not transferred into the past two races, even though he
did finish 4th here in the spring.
Still, even with those two wins and one additional top 5, BK has more
finishes OUTSIDE the top ten than he has INSIDE.
Kyle Busch: In 17 starts, Busch
has five wins and 12 top ten finishes. Still
a solid pick as The Sweeper knows how it’s done here, in any series. Kyle has led 1357 laps at Bristol in the last
ten races. Who is second in that
category, more than 600 behind?
Jimmie
Johnson: Not a best track for Jimmie, but not a sloucher either.
Like Kenseth, 7 top tens in the last ten
races, and if I know Jimmie, which I don’t, he and that team will not be
satisfied going into the Chase ties with anyone else for the lead. They are looking for another win.
Matt Kenseth: Two wins,
both in the August race, and was swapping the lead with Jeff Gordon in the
spring when Gordon’s tire became playground material and sent him into the wall
collecting Kenseth. He also has seven
top tens in the last ten races here.
Kasey Kahne: Kahne has not completely sold me, but he is
the best available with any major success.
While I cannot put my stamp on him as a sure pick, I can’t ignore the
win here in the spring. Three top 5 and five top 10’s are solid in the last ten
races.
Dark Horse
Pick: Brian Vickers: Really hard to ignore Vickers here. He has been trying for so long to get a full
time ride again. In the last two weeks, he
has learned he has that ride for next year, and oh by the way, Mark Martin is
going to drive the 14, so you get the 55 for the rest of this year, too. So, he has gotten his wish. Does he make the most of it and keep the
intensity, or is it time to let off the gas and cruise a little? He has three consecutive top ten finishes at
Bristol.
There
are my picks for this week at Bristol, but how did I do at Michigan? I’m scared…
Jimmie
Johnson: Blah blah blah. PUKE A MOTOR AT MICHIGAN. Solid
40th place finish.
Mark Martin: The
laps of fuel away from this one, but settling for a 27th place
finish.
Kyle Busch: Spinner
spinner, not today’s winner. 31st.
Matt Kenseth: Unusual
Kenseth Michigan day. Finished
15th.
Greg Biffle: Biff
finished 9th.
DARK HORSE
PICK-Martin Truex, Jr: Truex brought home a 16th place
finish.
I’m
quite embarrassed by this: a 9th,
a 15th, a 16th, 27th, 31st, and 40th. WOW.
Race Pro Picks!
Before
we get to the Bristol picks, let’s back it up and see how our pros did at
Michigan. Alabama Fitz, of all people,
brought home the top day with his Kasey Kahne pick, as did Mr. Seven. PattyKay’s pick of
Biffle got her back into second place.
Brian had Carl Edwards and brought home a tenth place finish, while
Kevin and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. ran a little flat, finishing in 36th. My brilliant pick of Jimmie Johnson turned
out well, and I scored a whopping five points, and dropped a spot in the
standings.
Player |
Selection |
Race
Pts |
Previous
Pts |
Total
Pts |
Wins |
DNFs |
Mr.
Seven |
5 |
37 |
857 |
894 |
0 |
0 |
PattyKay |
16 |
36 |
797 |
833 |
1 |
2 |
Jim |
48 |
5 |
826 |
831 |
5 |
1 |
Brian |
99 |
34 |
749 |
783 |
1 |
3 |
Alabama |
5 |
37 |
737 |
774 |
0 |
1 |
Kevin |
88 |
9 |
671 |
680 |
0 |
5 |
On with the show. Here
are our picks for the Irwin Tools Night Race at Bristol, at 7:30PM on ABC:
JIM FITZGERALD: The magic hat has been
passed around ad we have our picking order for this week. Kevin will take the honors and let us know
who he has chosen for his official pick this week. Kevin?
KEVIN ABRAHAM: Bristol. This is
one of the best races on the schedule, in my opinion. To win here a driver needs finesse and a good
chrome horn to move a driver out of the way.
This week, I look to see a driver who is close to making the Chase pick
up a win. He had a good car in the
spring until he was wrecked by Denny Hamlin. I am taking Joey Logano to get his first back to back wins in his
Sprint Cup career.
JIM
FITZGERALD: Well, that’s an interesting pick, and I said it last week. In
order to start a streak you have to win the first one, which is what Logano did
at Michigan. Another Ford win there, by the
way. That said, I’m not ready to put of my money
on the recent winner train and play the No. 22. Logano will have to prove
to me he can contend for back to back wins before I’ll ask him to execute them.
BRIAN
MARCHETTI: I have one dollar that says Logano does
not finish in the Top Five.
JIM FITZGERALD: I’m not sure if that means you don’t hold a high
opinion of Logano at Bristol, you only have a dollar, or you’re not very sure
about your bet.
BRIAN MARCHETTI: Yes.
KEVIN ABRAHAM: That's fine, Brian.
Who would you place your money on this weekend then, since you’re next?
BRIAN MARCHETTI: There was a time when Rusty Wallace and the No. 2
car owned Bristol, and if my memory is correct, Kurt Busch laid down some
impressive numbers there in the same car. No reason to think Brad Keselowski can’t do
the same. He has won
here twice before, and he's gonna do it again this week. I am picking the Blue
Deuce on top this week.
PATTYKAY LILLEY: Love that
pick! It's Bristol Baby! The only thing better than Bristol these
days, is Martinsville. I had this race narrowed down to two drivers six months
ago and it's still a close call. I can get both on my Yahoo card, but have to
pick a winner here. That winner, as
Brian said, will be Brad Keselowski, beyond the shadow of a doubt. Another logical choice is to turn the
initials around and go for Kyle Busch, but everyone else is just an also-ran.
It's time for Mama's Baby to bring home the bacon, as it were. See you when you
finish... if you do. For me, it will be
Keselowski all the way.
ALABAMA FITZ: You mentioned him, and anybody that didn't consider
Kyle Busch, seriously should have their head
examined. Since this track opened in 1961, there have been many, many
repeat wins here and there have been back to back wins, and there have been
sweeps. There are so many repeat and back to back winners here, I lost
track of them all. But Kyle is one of them. Some drivers have even done three-peats and one driver even did a four-peat. What else
would you call Cale Yarborough doing consecutive sweeps? He swept
both races in '76 and '77. He is the only man to sweep Bristol three times, the
other time being '74. R. Petty swept it in '75. Dale Earnhardt did
it in '85 and '87. If my research is right, they (Cale and Dale), are the
only drivers with multiple sweeps. Darrell Waltrip won seven races in a
row here. SEVEN! Only nine drivers have swept Bristol in
any given year since 1961. I've given you three, the others are: Lorenzen '64, Pearson '68, Bobby Allison '72, Rusty in '00,
Ku. Busch in '03, and Ky. Busch '09. Why all this info? You’ll find
out.
KEVIN ABRAHAM: Is it
because you’re…Da da da da da da
Da da da
da da da
STAT-MAN!!
JIM FITZGERALD: I was going
to go with “Statman Crothers”
BRIAN MARCHETTI: “Stat
Kenseth?”
PATTYKAY LILLEY: “William Statner?”
ALABAMA FITZ: Peanut Gallery, I thank you! But Kyle bothers me, as does Brad. I
sorely wanted to pick Kyle, so badly, that I almost did. I am
surprised no one did, yet, especially a certain somebody who has stock in the
M&M’s company from eating so many.
(Group laughter)
BRIAN MARCHETTI: That’s hilarious! But I fully intend on drinking Miller Lite all
weekend, especially since I will have an extra dollar on Saturday night to
restock my fridge!!!
KEVIN ABRAHAM: You HOPE you’ll have that dollar.
PATTYKAY LILLEY: Oh dear.
It is getting feisty in here! Let
me tell you this: In recent races, there is one more driver that has to attract
attention, and that is Martin Truex, Jr. In some categories he tops the list. I
found that a bit surprising, but it's right there for the reading. Now, Jim, stop stalling. Who?
JIM FITZGERALD: Well, I have to say those are all great
ideas. I STRONGLY considered Kyle Busch for this race. Seventeen
starts, 12 top tens, and 5 wins? That’s very
hard to ignore, and I had myself convinced that he was my choice this week, but
I’m going in a different direction. You
have to consider Keselowski, Kyle Busch, most recent winner Kasey Kahne, and of
course Logano is the most recent race winner, so he has the ‘Mo going for
him. I had myself stuck on Kyle Busch for the longest time, but then I
remembered the spring race at Bristol. Two drivers who had led over 150
laps collectively were the recipients of the curse of the bad luck fairy, on
whom I am pretty sure Alabama Fitz vomited at some time. Anyway, Jeff
Gordon popped a tire, and Matt Kenseth pooped a brick and ran right into
him. Kenseth has not been streaky this year. His wins have come
after lulls. Three races, then five, then three, then
six races between wins. He hasn’t won since Kentucky, seven races
ago. He has two wins at Bristol, and both are in the August race. I’m calling my shot, and it’s Kenseth
swinging at the fast ball, like Chris Davis, going deep, looking for win number
five!
KEVIN ABRAHAM: I
actually am surprised with you picking Kenseth, Jim. I thought you would
be less conservative, and maybe pick a Truex, Jr. or Mark Martin, since you
have a good lead in wins with five. Will being conservative work or will
making a gutsy call end up rattling a cage or two?
JIM FITZGERALD: First of all, as we are at Bristol, I love the
“cage rattling” reference. Solid
flashback moment there! Now, knowing who we are all really battling in our points game, the (literally) heartless Mr. Seven, five wins
after the reset is only going to give me a fifteen point lead. When the Chase starts, I’d probably have to
finish no worse than 8th each race.
Conservative?
No way. I’m here to give the best
option I can for our readers to make a choice for their fantasy picks, and I’m
certainly not going to choose someone I don’t feel is going to be the best
option.
BRIAN MARCHETTI: I'm a stats/research kind of guy, always looking
at the numbers. I just want to point out that every week as I do my
research, Matt Kenseth's name is always there, either at the top, or near the
top of the lists. I still like Keselowski for this race, but Kenseth
might be strong candidate to finish on top this year. He and his team are
not quitters, and although they seem to be a low key operation, they continue
to finish with strong numbers. I remember back in 2000 when Bobby Labonte
won the Cup Championship, he too, was a low key driver with consistent Top 10
finishes in the No. 18 Joe Gibbs Interstate Battery Pontiac. Kenseth and
his current team remind me of Labonte and that team.
PATTYKAY LILLEY: Kyle Busch has an excellent record here, as does
Matt, as Brian pointed out. I am still
going with my Keselowski pick, though. Just that feeling I talked about. That just leaves the Mouth of the South, my
southern buddy, Alabama Fitz, to make his choice.
ALABAMA FITZ: So, my pick this week has run 19 times at Bristol,
finished 16 times, has a starting average of 12th and a finishing avg. of
18th. Not very impressive. But that was
due to his early runs here. Recently, he has a win, a fifth, two
ninths and an eleventh. All of that in his last
seven races. He has finished out of the top 11 only once and has
improved his starting position in six of those seven. Kyle Busch was the
last to sweep here, in 2009. Get
ready to add another name to the sweep list...Kasey Kahne in the 5 car won
the spring race here and I'm saying he can do it again.
PATTYKAY LILLEY: Kahne is probably a good pick. It is often hard to go against the winner of
the previous race. I just have a good
feeling about the Blue Deuce this week. They are over the penalties early in
the season and when Brad is on, there is no one better. I cannot imagine picking
anyone else. Of course, it is Bristol
and there are wrecks! He's still the best bet on the track this week.
So, as
we said, multiple times, it is BRISTOL!
Jet fighters in a gymnasium, and all that! So, we picked Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski,
twice, Kasey Kahne, and Matt Kenseth.
Best of luck to you with your picks this week, we hope we have steered
you in the right direction if you have allowed yourself to be steered, and
until we meet again, here is a quote about Tennessee!
“I grew up in
east Tennessee, and everybody knew everybody’s business. –Kenny Chesney
Remember
to follow me on Twitter @Forewasabi Sometimes I give stuff away.
Jim Fitzgerald @Forewasabi
PattyKay Lilley @MamaPKL
Kevin Abraham @KevDogg329
Marshall Gabell @Gabell_Racing
Who is YOUR pick to win this week?