Fast Forward ~ The Advocare 500k Fantasy Race Picks And Preview
11/07/2013
Staff Article
“The future is like a corridor into which we can see only by the
light coming from behind.”
– Edward Weyer
The
Track: Phoenix International Raceway
Location: Avondale, Arizona
Length: 1.0 Mile
Banking: 11 degrees in
turns 1-2;
9 degrees in turns 3-4;
9 degrees on the
backstretch;
3 degrees on the front
stretch
Pit Road Length/Speed: 1140
feet/45 MPH
The Race:
The AdvoCare 500k
312 Laps (500 Kilometers)
Defending Champion: Kevin
Harvick, 111.182 MPH
Most recent winner: Carl Edwards, 105.187 MPH
Track Record: Tony Stewart,
118.132 MPH, November, 1999
Event Record: Tony Stewart,
118.132 MPH, November, 1999
Qualifying record: Kyle
Busch, 138.766 MPH, November 2012
TV:ESPN,
3:00PM EST
Radio: MRN (www.motorracingnetwork.com); Sirius XM 90
The
History:
1964 – Construction
completed, consisting of a one-mile oval and a 2.5 mile road course.
11/6/1988 - The first race
at Phoenix was run and won by 1992 Sprint Cup Champion Alan Kulwicki.
This is also the race for the slowest
average speed at 90.457 MPH.
4/23/2005 – The first early
season race and night race was run, won by Kurt Busch
11/13/2005 – Kyle Busch
becomes the youngest race winner at 20 years, 5 months, 11 days
4/18/2009 – Mark Martin
becomes the oldest race winner at the track at 50 years, 3 months, 9 days.
4/10/2010 – The closest
margin of victory was set when Ryan Newman defeated Jeff Gordon by 0.13 seconds
2011 – The track underwent
a change in configuration and a repave.
The
Contenders:
Kevin
Harvick: Harvick may not be in the
best graces with every surrounding him, but that does not deter his drive at
all. How do you either anger your boss
or mend the fence? You go out and win
the last two races of the season.
Harvick is the defending Champion as well, and swept the races here in
2006.
Carl
Edwards: No surprise here. Edwards won the race here in the spring
ending a long dry spell, and he also won here in 2010, which…ended a long dry
spell. Edwards also has three poles and 7
top tens.
Jimmie
Johnson: Big shock, here. Johnson, in 20 starts, has 4 wins and 13 top fives. He has also
led more laps here than any other active driver, including Mark Martin, who has
13 more starts here.
Denny
Hamlin: Hamlin is on the radar
because no one has scored more points than he has in the five most recent races
here. They could be in test mode for
next season, but I also think the team would jump at the chance to get into the
win column if the opportunity presented itself.
Brad
Keselowski: Keselowski might not be
in the Chase for the Championship, but he’s not letting that spoil his Chase
races. This team has seen resurgence of
late, including the win at Charlotte. In
eight starts, Kes only has two top fives, but guess what?
His last three finishes were a 5th, a 6th, and a 4th.
Dark
Horse Pick: Kurt Busch: A
former winner here, finished 8th in this race last year.
There are my picks for this
week at Phoenix, but let’s back up the rewind machine and see how I fared with
my Texas picks.
Matt Kenseth:
Finished in 4th
Greg Biffle:
Brought it back home in 12th.
Jimmie Johnson:
Here is your winner….
Kyle Busch:
A 13th place finish
Carl Edwards:
Sat on the pole, led, and puked. 37th.
DARK HORSE PICK-Dale
Earnhardt, Jr.- A second place for Jr.
So, a
win, a 2nd, a 4th, a 12th, a 13th,
and a 37th. Hmmmm… I’ll get
better. You deserve better.
Race Pro
Picks!
Before we get to this
week’s picks, here are the results for the AAA Texas 500. My point lead shrunk again, and my pick
finished fourth! PattyKay took the win
with Jimmie Johnson, while Brian vaulted Alabama Fitz for third. Mr. Seven held his serve, and Kevin was able
to break the basement tie with Marshall.
Player |
Selection |
Race Pts |
Previous Pts |
Total Pts |
Behind |
Wins |
DNFs |
Jim |
20 |
41 |
2291 |
2332 |
0 |
7 |
1 |
PattyKay |
48 |
48 |
2271 |
2319 |
13 |
4 |
2 |
Brian |
18 |
32 |
2254 |
2286 |
46 |
3 |
3 |
Alabama |
99 |
8 |
2265 |
2273 |
59 |
1 |
2 |
Mr. Seven |
11 |
37 |
2225 |
2262 |
70 |
0 |
0 |
Kevin |
2 |
38 |
2222 |
2260 |
72 |
2 |
5 |
Marshall |
16 |
33 |
2222 |
2255 |
77 |
0 |
0 |
Here are our picks for the AdvoCare 500K at Phoenix, March 3, 2013, 3pm on ESPN.
JIM FITZGERALD: Two races remaining. As the point leader, I will make my selection
first, and probably to no one's surprise, I am taking Matt Kenseth once
again. I'm riding the No. 20 express for
the rest of the season. I think that
team and Kenseth as a driver are a natural fit.
Even though Jimmie Johnson has a 7 point lead now, this is not
over. Phoenix will play a major role in
determining a Champion, as once it is over, we'll know who needs to do
what. In the last ten races here,
Kenseth only has three top ten finishes, but guess what? One of them came in the spring with his new
team in only their second race together.
They have grown leaps and bounds since then, and knocked out seven wins
in the process. I think all focus will
be on that car this weekend, and it will be bulletproof. It will need to be if Kenseth has any hopes
of going into Homestead with any comfort. So, there it is....Matt Kenseth all day
long on Sunday.
PATTYKAY LILLEY: Time to make a pick
for Phoenix, a track not much to my liking, but they go there, and whither they
goest...Mama usually doesn't look back farther than 6
races, caring more about "What has he done for me lately" than what
he did when he was a young lad. Today, I peeked at the stats for the last 10
races as well, and they changed my thinking just a bit. Ordinarily, over the
last decade, we come to Phoenix and I automatically check off Denny Hamlin and
move on to column B. Here, we have no column B and Denny is decidedly not Denny
this year, with that back problem, baby and all. Soooooo... who's that guy on top of
the 10-race stats; the one with EIGHT top FIVES in those ten races? Not
trusting my luck to a single shining stat, I peeked in on Loudon, the track
most like this flat, one-mile snoozer in Phoenix. Well, not "quite"
as good. Only 5 top-fives, but 8 top tens with a win. Fair enough. This lad can wheel it on a
flat track, and during Chase time, could probably win it on a Schwinn. Yes,
Mama will ride shotgun once again with Jimmie Johnson. See y'all at
the finish line... when you get there.
And Jim... seven points in the key. I did it this past week. Twice more
= 21. I "reminded" you gently of that last Sunday. The forthcoming
answer was, “Whatever!" Don't be
complacent. Just like Jimmie, you're not that far ahead.
JIM FITZGERALD: Don’t I know it. I’m sweating a little! Top five finishes are not enough to win this
Championship.
KEVIN ABRAHAM: You know, I looked at
Johnson and Kenseth, but both have had issues in the fall race. Kenseth was
wrecked in 2011, and Johnson hit the wall due to a flat tire in 2012.
JIM FITZGERALD: All in the past…the future is now, my friend,
and its name is Kenseth.
KEVIN ABRAHAM: I guess we’ll see! Fitz…what do you have?
ALABAMA FITZ: So, my pick last week
yielded a 37th place finish? As
E.T. once said, "O-u-u-c-h-h"!
I sure didn't expect that! Oh
well, at least my Eagles won on my birthday!
So, as they say, onward and upward…I hope! So many contenders, so
little time. I thought about
picking the defending champion of this race, Kevin Harvick, but changed my mind
when I put all of Kenseth’s info together.
Ergo, I should be taking Matt for this week in Phoenix. I like what I
read and everything Jim says is probably correct except the bullet proof. So why argue with a proven winner? Because I can. So, I'm going to ride with the 18 and bad
boy Kyle Busch. Here's hoping all goes well in the pits.
MARSHALL GABELL: I was stuck between
Harvick, Edwards and Hamlin. Kyle Busch never crossed my mind due to the fact
he's had rare success here with only one win back in 2005. He finished 23rd
here in the Spring and I don't think the No. 18 will
even capture a top-five.
ALABAMA FITZ: Kyle's Championship hopes
are gone, but mine aren't and he is just the kind of guy to throw the monkey
wrench.
KEVIN ABRAHAM: I thought of your pick
last week, Fitz, for this week. Edwards entered
my brain for about one second, but after popping another engine last weekend, I
decided to not put him on my short list.
PATTYKAY LILLEY: Kev,
that shortened my look at Cousin Carl as well. He's done very well here at
Phoenix, but something is just a bit lackluster about that team this year.
They're just not the shiniest jewel in the box.
So, what are you thinking about for your pick this week?
KEVIN ABRAHAM: My short list was Kevin
Harvick, Denny Hamlin, and Jeff Gordon this week. Harvick is ruled out due to
being a lame duck, and Jeff Gordon does not seem to have luck on his side. This
leaves Mr. Seven's pick the last two weeks Denny Hamlin. I’m hoping he can
re-kindle some of his touch this weekend, and gets us a win.
JIM FITZGERALD: Kevin, Denny Hamlin is
a solid pick here, and if I wasn't trying to convince everyone to ride the
Kenseth wagon to a Championship, Hamlin would have most definitely been on my
list. No one has scored more points here
in recent races than Hamlin. I'll always
have that image of him at Phoenix, though, sitting dejectedly on the wall with
a water bottle in hand as the 2010 Championship slipped through his fingers
because of fuel mileage.
MARSHALL GABELL: Kevin and Jim, Hamlin
certainly needs a win to secure his credibility back after the injury. Hamlin
definitely could post a top-ten this weekend as he's done in the past three
years with a win, a runner-up and a third place finish and all that in the past
three races here.
KEVIN ABRAHAM: Hamlin has the best
record since the repave of the track in 2011. Only other drivers to win on the
new pavement are Kahne, Harvick, and Edwards. Something for all to keep in mind
this weekend.
MARSHALL GABELL: Exactly. A Toyota
hasn't won on the new pavement yet and that's why I've eliminated JGR and MWR.
Obviously Denny or Matt could change that stat this weekend but I'm
uncomfortable picking a manufacturer that hasn't won there. I write off Kahne
because the success for him on short tracks isn't happening. I'm worried about
Edwards rebounding from the misfortune this past weekend. Then I realize Harvick has a
decent chance to win and that's why I chose him.
BRIAN K. MARCHETTI: Wait, you chose Harvick? I must have missed that.
MARSHALL GABELL: Yes, I did,
quietly. And as far as Kenseth, Jim, he has
figured out every racetrack with Joe Gibbs this year, but I think his miracle
first year in the No. 20 comes to an end this weekend with an error.
ALABAMA FITZ: I'm not so sure Harvick
is such a lame duck, personality wise.
He may drive harder than that just for pride's sake. He could pull it off. Oh, Brian…you haven’t picked yet.
BRIAN K. MARCHETTI: For no reason other
than he has to, I'm also going with Jimmie Johnson this week.....and I look at
it like this: No Team out there has a
Chad Knaus, except this team. He is a master at what he does, and he will
learn from any mistakes he's made, or his team has made, or his driver has
made. Johnson is a Champion, and he can
drive the wheels off of a car on any track.
He is not going to let this season slide from his fingertips. Kenseth is an excellent competitor, and a
Champion in his own right, but he only needs to beat one driver this week, and
I'm sure if Matt were offered a choice, Johnson would be that one driver. I’m with PattyKay this week. We’re taking Jimmie Johnson this week.
JIM FITZGERALD: Before we leave this week, as we begin to
close the season, I want to thank everyone who has been here from the start, as
well as those who have joined part way through.
All season long, we fought the tyranny of Mr. Seven. This was a guy who was, without fail, awarded
the points of the seventh place driver, week in and week out. That said, we have been making picks against
him, and if things go right this weekend, we could actually eliminate Mr. Seven
from Championship contention. That’s
pretty solid as far as making good picks is concerned. You would have to think that a guy who
finished seventh all season long might be a lock to win the title, but in the
long run, we’re better. Thank you all
for a great season…and we still have two races to go.
So, there are our picks. We hope you find them valuable, and better
yet, if you use them, we hope you find them in Victory Lane! Best of luck to all, and until next week,
when we look at the final race of the season and recap this week, here is a
quote about Phoenix!
“I
love California. I practically grew up in
Phoenix.”- Dan Quayle (Can’t make this stuff up.)