Fast Forward ~ The Ford EcoBoost 400 Fantasy Race Picks And Preview
11/15/2013
Staff Article
“The future is like a corridor into which we can see only by the light coming from behind.”
– Edward Weyer
The Track: Homestead Miami Speedway
Location: Homestead, Florida
Length: 1.5 Mile Oval
Banking: 18-20 degrees in turns 1-2;
18-20 degrees in turns 3-4;
4 degrees on the backstretch;
4 degrees on the front stretch
Pit Road Speed: 45 MPH
The Race: Ford EcoBoost 400
267 Laps, 400.5 Miles
Defending Champion: Jeff Gordon, 142.246 MPH
Most recent winner: Jeff Gordon, 142.246 MPH
Track Record: Jeff Gordon, 142.246 MPH November, 2012
Event Record: Jeff Gordon, 142.246 MPH November, 2012
Qualifying record: Jamie McMurray, 181.111 MPH November, 2003
TV:ESPN, 3:00PM EST
Radio: MRN (www.motorracingnetwork.com); Sirius XM 90
The History:
8/24/1993-Groundbreaking begins on location for what was originally called the Miami-Dade Motorsports Complex, which opened in 1995.
11/14/1999-The first Sprint Cup Race was held here and won by Tony Stewart
11/11/2001-Bill Elliott becomes the oldest race winner at 46 years, 1 month, 3 days.
2002- The track was reconfigured to include the variable banking.
11/17/2003-Kurt Busch becomes the youngest race winner at 24 years, 3 months, 13 days.
The Contenders:
Only three picks this week, and no dark horse.
Kevin Harvick: Third in points, Harvick has to perform the best of all three title contenders.
Matt Kenseth: Should Kenseth hope to win his second Championship, he’ll need to have a spectacular day…and some help.
Jimmie Johnson: Johnson need to finish 23rd or better to clinch his 6th Sprint Cup Series Championship.
There are my picks for this week at Homestead, but let’s back up the rewind machine and see how I fared with my Phoenix picks.
Kevin Harvick: Kevin made me look good!
Carl Edwards: Almost, but one lap short of fuel. Finished 21st.
Jimmie Johnson: Solid 3rd place for Jimmie Johnson.
Denny Hamlin: Hamlin led early, but trouble sent him to a 28th place finish.
Brad Keselowski: Came Home 11th
Dark Horse Pick: Kurt Busch: Finished 5th.
So, a win, a 3rd, a 5th, an 11th, a 21st and a 28th. I think that about covers it.
Race Pro Picks!
Before we get to this week’s picks, here are the results for Phoenix. My point lead shrunk again, and then disappeared. PattyKay Lilley took over the point lead with her pick of Jimmie Johnson. Now, we’re down to it. Who will fly, and who will cry?
Player |
Selection |
Race Pts |
Previous Pts |
Total Pts |
Behind |
Wins |
DNFs |
PattyKay |
48 |
42 |
2319 |
2361 |
0 |
4 |
2 |
Jim |
20 |
21 |
2332 |
2353 |
8 |
7 |
1 |
Brian |
48 |
42 |
2286 |
2328 |
33 |
3 |
3 |
Alabama |
18 |
37 |
2273 |
2310 |
51 |
1 |
2 |
Marshall |
29 |
48 |
2255 |
2303 |
58 |
1 |
0 |
Mr. Seven |
18 |
37 |
2262 |
2299 |
62 |
0 |
0 |
Kevin |
11 |
17 |
2260 |
2277 |
84 |
2 |
5 |
Here are our picks for the Ford EcoBoost 400 at Homestead, November 17th, 2013, 3pm on ESPN.
PATTYKAY LILLEY: I believe it's become the custom for first place to pick first, and don't look now, but there's a skirt in first place as we come to the last race of the season. Fitz, no peeking! So, I know everyone has expected me to stick with JJ for the remainder of the year, and he sure did me good this week, though it was more due to Matt having one of those rare crappy weeks and dumping both himself and Jim. UHH... Jim, that blue streak you saw go by was JJ, and I was riding shotgun. Sorry about the wall and all...but, nope, no JJ for Mama this week. He only has to finish 23 to clinch his #6, and he'll be taking no chances. I only hold an 8 point lead... if my math is correct... and I need someone who's going to try harder. I was looking really hard at poor hard-luck Cousin Carl, who did it again this week, but then I peeked at the new points and something caught my eye. That guy that won today is only 6 points behind Matty, and his record at Homestead is stellar. Carl's is too, but I tend to shy from a run of bad luck. So Jimmie isn't even going to try, which is probably good because he's not the fastest gun in the holster at this track. Matt is going to drive his heart out and possibly his arse off, which means he may overdo it and lose because of it. Mr. Calm, Cool and Collected aka Kevin Harvick will be driving Miss Patty this week at Homestead.
KEVIN ABRAHAM: This week we head to the last race of this year. Jimmie Johnson has the title all but won. I’m thinking about those who are strong this week. My short list is Jeff Burton, Mark Martin, and Bobby Labonte. Sorry it's 2013, not 2003, so I don't think those picks will earn me a win this weekend. In all seriousness I want to give each one of them a shutout as this may be (or have been in Labonte's case) their final Sprint Cup race. Add Ken Schrader to that short list for this weekend and we are losing four great drivers after this race, five if you count Juan Montoya moving to IndyCar. I do not think I have ever seen that many drivers leave Sprint Cup in a short time period. I need some time to make my pick this week. Go ahead Jim, and pick Kenseth, and Brian will pick Kyle, and Fitz I know will try his luck with Kahne. Not forgetting Marshall who is going to double or nothing on Kevin Harvick. I will then share my pick for this race after you all confirm who I think you all will pick.
JIM FITZGERALD: Kev, you seem to think you have everyone figured out. Maybe you're right, maybe you're not. But in regards to making prognostications...aren't you last in the standings? The truth is, I like PattyKay's pick of Harvick, and if she had not picked him, I may very well have. But, since we're here to offer up the best options for our readers, me picking Harvick would just be reinforcing her pick, I'm going to go with my original plan, and stick by my man. Jimmie Johnson won't be lying back this week, and neither will his closest challenger, Matt Kenseth. I said it three weeks ago. This was Kenseth's Championship to lose. Now, he has to go out and win it. I'm taking Kenseth, and hopefully both of us are taking a Championship.
ALABAMA FITZ: New leader, eh? "A skirt", I think was the reference used. "A skirt" is on top of the ladder and NOW she is worried about peeking. Congrats to you, PattyKay, for attaining the top position, and for breaking that "glass ceiling". Congrats also to you, Marshall on your first win. I say first, because I'm sure there are more where that one came from. Sorry to pop your bubble, Kev, but Kahne will not be my pick this week. He is respectable with his record, but not enough to consider for that long. I think Edwards is the odds on favorite to win here. What better way to end a disappointing year with a win at the Homestead. But...In the 14 races run at Homestead, there have been 9 different winners, including Bill Elliott! Stewart and Biffle lead with three wins each, but Biffle hasn't done much since his three consecutive wins a few years back. Cousin Carl got a very long look with his 2 wins and 7 Top 10s out of only 9 races. I also looked at the defending Homestead winner, Jeff Gordon. As his teammate wins the Cup, I see Jeff, if necessary, doing all he can to assure that. And THAT REASON, my friends, is why I just "unliked" Gordon to win. I'm actually changing my pick as I write this. Qualifying here doesn't seem to matter at Homestead as less than half of the winners started in the first ten spots. That fact tells me that passing is relatively easy here and positions can be made. I said a few weeks ago that JJ would right his ship and sail away to the Championship. I see that happening and, if need be, Gordon helping him do it. That is why I WILL go with Edwards in the 99. So it is written, so let it be done.
PATTYKAY LILLEY: You jumped right on that skirt and peeking reference, as I knew you would. I played in a fantasy survivor league for many years with a guy that was always trying to peek up the skirt of the Lady in Black, which is also the name of my fantasy race team. He got a lot of chances, as I was quite a good player in that league, and we had a lot of laughs about that "ladder." I like Cousin Carl here. I like him anywhere, as a matter of fact. I just can't jump on that string of bad-luck finishes when I can't afford to have one of my own. Harvick finishes most every race he runs, and has the extra incentive of being able to pass Matt for second place, and that amounts to a large chunk of change come banquet time. Mega-bucks in reality. I am calmly sitting back and waiting to see Kevin do all he can to top Matt by six positions on Sunday... and taking me along to my first Championship at Race Fans Forever.
MARSHALL GABELL: Stealing my pick of Harvick eh? That's fine because it will be a NASCAR fan favorite in victory lane. I’m thinking Dale Junior is going there in Homestead!
JIM FITZGERALD: Interesting pick, Marshall. Why Dale?
MARSHALL GABELL: He can ride that high line like no-one else and that will be key on Sunday. I’m kind of anxious to see what Brian has on tap for this week.
BRIAN K. MARCHETTI: I'm feeling kinda funky this week. We all know, or assume JJ has this locked up, and aside from a DNF, he probably does. So the real competition is with 2nd thru 4th, and who makes the most money. Kenseth, Harvick, and Kyle Busch are all hungry, for their own reasons, but Kenseth has a reasonable shot if JJ has issues. Kenseth has a 14.1 Average finish in the last 10 races at Homestead, with an 18th, 4th, and 9th the last three years. Harvick, 6.8 Average finish, with an 8th, 8th, and 3rd the last three years. Kyle Busch has a 23.1 Average finish, with a 4th, 23rd, and 32nd the last three years. I'm not a fan of Kyle for this race, even though I have plenty of M&Ms on hand. Harvick is locked in by the Lady in Black, which leaves me my real first hearted pick of Matt Kenseth. I really wanted to see Matt win it all this year, and he has a remote chance, and won't just let that slide.
JIM FITZGERALD: I like the way you think! Me and Brian, riding with Matt Kenseth this week! I hope the car has good shocks!!
MARSHALL GABELL: But what about Jr? Dale Jr. basically has clinched that spot in the top five in points and which a good showing, meaning a win, he could end up 4th in points which would be a tremendous result for that No. 88 team.
BRIAN K. MARCHETTI: If he can do it, great, but I don’t see it.
MARSHALL GABELL: I just realize I broke a Race Fans Forever record, youngest person to pick a winner here at RFF, how about that! Also Jim, I'm worried Kenseth might overdrive that No. 20 thinking he still has a chance at the title. It will be fun to watch!
JIM FITZGERALD: You didn't break a record. I thought up Race Fans Forever on the day I was born, and 10 days later picked Buddy Baker to win the 1972 Texas 500 at Texas World Speedway in College Station on November 12th. Yep, I was right, too. He drove that 1971 Dodge, and led 133 of the 250 laps. A.J. Foyt was second, and The King was third. Buddy dominated the early part of it, but then for a while it was all Petty and Foyt. But Buddy took the lead back on Lap 229 and never looked back. He won just under 15,000.00. But yeah, that was my first win. Believe it, and I’ll tell you just one more!
MARSHALL GABELL: Dagnabbit! That means I'm 2nd, which is the first loser!
ALABAMA FITZ: Jim also has some ocean front property for sale in Montana, complete with sauna and hot tub in the condo, and M&Ms in the candy dish!
KEVIN ABRAHAM: As Reece Bobby said, “If you ain't first you are last....” and I am last. My pick to close out the season is going to be a Ford one more time. I looked at Biffle, Logano, and Edwards, I even looked at David Ragan, David Gilliland, josh Wise, Trevor Bayne and Michael McDowell. I gave Ken Schrader a good look in his last Sprint Cup Race, but in the end I look to see that blue deuce of Keselowski in Victory Lane, building momentum towards 2014. On a side note. I am pulling for Harvick to finish second for PattyKay to clinch her RFF title.
JIM FITZGERALD: Son, did you forget who you're workin' fer?
KEVIN ABRAHAM: I will be working for a guy in a red suit in a few weeks. Merry Christmas!!!
JIM FITZGERALD: I guess I should tell everyone at this point that Kevin and Marshall have decided to suspend their activities here at Race Fans Forever to focus on other aspects of personal life. I would like to thank you both. We’re going to miss you, and hope that you will return someday.
Group: Here, here!
ALABAMA FITZ: You know, Kev, I checked out Brad also, but there wasn't enough info on him for just five races and not even a Top 10 finish. It could happen though, but I'm not seeing it at Homestead.
KEVIN ABRAHAM: I went off the fact he has been strong ever since he missed the Chase. Rebuilding for 2014.
JIM FITZGERALD: Hey, it’s the last race…anything can happen.
ALABAMA FITZ: Speaking of anything can happen…how does everyone see this playing out this weekend?
JIM FITZGERALD: Well, I think that it is going to be closer than a lot of people think. I feel like Kenseth is going to run up front all day, lead the most laps, but finish second to maybe a Greg Biffle or a Clint Bowyer...is it too much to hope for a Kurt Busch win? That's going to close the gap. I don't think Harvick will move up in points...in fact, I think he'll drop to fourth with a bad day, and Kyle Busch will take over third place. Jimmie Johnson will run in the top ten all day and do what he has to do, and at the end of it all, claim his sixth Championship by about 12-15 points over Matt Kenseth.
KEVIN ABRAHAM: I have to say you’re going to see Harvick and Kenseth slug it out for the win. They have nothing to lose. On the other side of that, I think that Johnson stays in the back half of the top 20, and does everything he needs to do win the title. PattyKay?
PATTYKAY LILLEY: The battle up front will undoubtedly be close and hotly contested. Neither Kenseth nor Harvick can afford not to drive the wheels off the car while hoping that Johnson finds some measure of ill-fortune, perhaps in the form of a blown engine. To my mind, that is not likely to happen. What will happen is a scene that I've seen repeated through a myriad of Championship runs over the years, no matter the driver. JJ has a comfortable lead, but he is not invincible. He has to finish 23rd or better to clinch the win, and that is only if Kenseth wins, leads a lap and the most laps. It escalates from there. Jimmie will find a place to ride, with all other cars well removed from his fenders, and spend as much time as possible in that configuration. That is what Chad will instruct him to do and he'd be a fool to do otherwise. Why take a chance of being wrecked while trying to put another lap on a backmarker? That's the way leads are protected when the Championship is at stake. Who will win the race? My guess remains Harvick, but it will be immaterial as far as the Championship goes. All hail "Sixtime!"
JIM FITZGERALD: I contemplated retiring this column at the end of the season. It’s a lot of work and doesn’t get a lot of hits, but it’s too much fun not to do. I’ll miss these over the winter. Thanks to everyone for helping out with this throughout the year. Kevin and Marshall, I wish you the best, and feel free to stop by when you have the chance. Brian, thanks for the support and the M&Ms, and sticking with this! PattyKay, you’re an awesome partner, and I value your contributions more than you’ll ever know. Alabama Fitz, thanks for, well, everything. If it wasn’t for you, none of us would be here at Race Fans Forever. Thirty-eight weeks, one left to score but we scored eighteen winners throughout the season. Not too bad! That gives us something to shoot for next year! Until then, thank to everyone for stopping by, and we’ll see you in Daytona! Best to all!
Jim Fitzgerald @Forewasabi
PattyKay Lilley @MamaPKL
Kevin Abraham @KevDogg329
Marshall Gabell @Gabell_Racing
Who is YOUR pick to win this week?