One to go: It IS Johnson's Title To Lose
11/15/2013
Kevin Abraham
(Authors note: Before I start my column this week, I want to thank Jim for the opportunity to write for Race Fans Forever this year. I have been blessed greatly by this opportunity, not only from being able to share my thoughts with the NASCAR world, but being a part of a team that strives to be professional and accurate in everything they report. I will be around next year, as a guest contributor, but with my schedule filling up, I felt that it would be unfair to Race Fans Forever to not be able to give 100 percent on a weekly basis. This is why after this weekend’s race at Homestead, I am handing my golden pen back to Jim. May someone who has the desire to write please contact him.)
This weekend we are at the final race of the year at Homestead. To get to the point, it is Jimmie Johnson's championship to lose this year. Matt Kenseth as well as Kevin Harvick will be both contending hard for the win, but with Johnson needing a 23rd place or better finish to win the championship, I do not see anyone overcoming this deficit. The reason I see Harvick and Kenseth going all out for the win is due to past history.
In multiple season ending races, we have seen the driver second in points do everything right to try to steal the championship, but fail. The best example of this was in 1992, when Bill Elliot won the race, but lost the championship by ten points. We saw this trend continue for the next three years, from 1993-1995 where the driver second in points would win the last race of the year.
Going back to Jimmie Johnson and why he will win the championship…Johnson is the master of keeping a point lead once he has it. He will lay back and keep his fenders clear. He will also run well enough to stay in the top 20, which is what he needs to do. The only way Johnson can lose the title is if something happens to the car that is outside of his control. Johnson has had one of the most dominant championship seasons in recent history. As entertaining as it would be and as much as I would like to see Kenseth or Harvick unseat Johnson, there is a slim shot of this happening.
Quickly shifting gears, I want to shine the spotlight on the Nationwide Series Championship race for 2013. Currently, Austin Dillon is in the point lead by a slim eight points over Sam Hornish. It is quite possible that there will be a champion that does not have a win in their championship season. From my recollection, this has NEVER happened
in any of the top three series; however, it could have happened. History time. Back in 1994, the champion David Green won one race; however he only won the race at Bristol because the caution came out near the end of the race. This is before we have the Green White Checkered rule. Thinking he had already taken the checkered flag, Mark Martin pulled off the track under caution one lap early. Green went onto win the race, while Martin, who had dominated the race, finished in 11th place. This year, Austin Dillon could go down in history on Saturday as being the only Champion of NASCAR’s top three series to not win a race in his Championship season. The other astonishing part of this championship run is that second place Sam Hornish does not have a ride for 2014. This is shocking to me, due to the fact that Hornish has vastly improved from his first year in NASCAR. For sponsors to pass this driver over is
astounding to say the least. Hopefully Hornish will find sponsorship and a ride for 2014.
Please share your thoughts about the Championship battles below. Who do you think will win the Sprint Cup? Who will win the Nationwide Championship? Dillon or Hornish? Also please share your thoughts about the state of the sport as
well.
Finally, I will be around every once in a while sharing my thoughts on NASCAR as my schedule permits. I would encourage anyone who has thought about writing about NASCAR to send Jim an E-mail. I know he would love to hear from you. Thank You all for reading and sharing your comments all year long!!
I am on Twitter @kevdogg329
[email protected]
Kevin Abraham
(Authors note: Before I start my column this week, I want to thank Jim for the opportunity to write for Race Fans Forever this year. I have been blessed greatly by this opportunity, not only from being able to share my thoughts with the NASCAR world, but being a part of a team that strives to be professional and accurate in everything they report. I will be around next year, as a guest contributor, but with my schedule filling up, I felt that it would be unfair to Race Fans Forever to not be able to give 100 percent on a weekly basis. This is why after this weekend’s race at Homestead, I am handing my golden pen back to Jim. May someone who has the desire to write please contact him.)
This weekend we are at the final race of the year at Homestead. To get to the point, it is Jimmie Johnson's championship to lose this year. Matt Kenseth as well as Kevin Harvick will be both contending hard for the win, but with Johnson needing a 23rd place or better finish to win the championship, I do not see anyone overcoming this deficit. The reason I see Harvick and Kenseth going all out for the win is due to past history.
In multiple season ending races, we have seen the driver second in points do everything right to try to steal the championship, but fail. The best example of this was in 1992, when Bill Elliot won the race, but lost the championship by ten points. We saw this trend continue for the next three years, from 1993-1995 where the driver second in points would win the last race of the year.
Going back to Jimmie Johnson and why he will win the championship…Johnson is the master of keeping a point lead once he has it. He will lay back and keep his fenders clear. He will also run well enough to stay in the top 20, which is what he needs to do. The only way Johnson can lose the title is if something happens to the car that is outside of his control. Johnson has had one of the most dominant championship seasons in recent history. As entertaining as it would be and as much as I would like to see Kenseth or Harvick unseat Johnson, there is a slim shot of this happening.
Quickly shifting gears, I want to shine the spotlight on the Nationwide Series Championship race for 2013. Currently, Austin Dillon is in the point lead by a slim eight points over Sam Hornish. It is quite possible that there will be a champion that does not have a win in their championship season. From my recollection, this has NEVER happened
in any of the top three series; however, it could have happened. History time. Back in 1994, the champion David Green won one race; however he only won the race at Bristol because the caution came out near the end of the race. This is before we have the Green White Checkered rule. Thinking he had already taken the checkered flag, Mark Martin pulled off the track under caution one lap early. Green went onto win the race, while Martin, who had dominated the race, finished in 11th place. This year, Austin Dillon could go down in history on Saturday as being the only Champion of NASCAR’s top three series to not win a race in his Championship season. The other astonishing part of this championship run is that second place Sam Hornish does not have a ride for 2014. This is shocking to me, due to the fact that Hornish has vastly improved from his first year in NASCAR. For sponsors to pass this driver over is
astounding to say the least. Hopefully Hornish will find sponsorship and a ride for 2014.
Please share your thoughts about the Championship battles below. Who do you think will win the Sprint Cup? Who will win the Nationwide Championship? Dillon or Hornish? Also please share your thoughts about the state of the sport as
well.
Finally, I will be around every once in a while sharing my thoughts on NASCAR as my schedule permits. I would encourage anyone who has thought about writing about NASCAR to send Jim an E-mail. I know he would love to hear from you. Thank You all for reading and sharing your comments all year long!!
I am on Twitter @kevdogg329
[email protected]
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