2/12/2013
Jim Fitzgerald
“The future is like a corridor into which we can see only by the light coming from behind.”
–Edward Weyer, Jr.
This little bit of insight into fortune telling is more applicable in racing prognostication than one might think. When making choices of who we think will do well on any given weekend at any given track, the only thing we have to go on is what has happened in the past.
Welcome to Fast Forward, a column to appear here on RACE FANS FOREVER previewing the next upcoming race. This week we will look into the crystal ball and try to determine what the Sprint Unlimited promotional race will show us, who will run well, and who might even win. Vegas, pay attention!
Forecasting race winners is a chancy business at best. You are not comparing two teams going head to
head in a football, baseball or basketball game. You will have forty-three teams to consider,
and there can only be one winner. While
there will probably be the usual suspects each week, I’m sure we will have some
surprises as the season goes on.
I think we have chatted this up for long enough…let’s get down to
business.
The Sprint Unlimited, previously known as the Busch Clash, the Bud
Shootout and the Budweiser Shootout has gone through more name and format
changes than I care to address. The
important thing to know this year is who is in the race, and that was
determined by going back to basics, and returning to what determined the
participants for the longest time. The
entrants in the race this year, and hopefully going forward, are the drivers
who have won the race I the past and those who won a Pole Position in the
previous season. The qualifying drivers
include:
#5-Kasey Kahne. Farmers
Insurance Chevy
#9-Marcos Ambrose, Ford Stanley Ford
#11-Denny Hamlin, FedEx Express Toyota
#14-Tony Stewart, Mobil 1-Bass Pro Shops Chevy
#16-Greg Biffle, 3M Ford
#18-Kyle Busch, M&M's Toyota
#20-Matt Kenseth, Dollar General Toyota
#22-Joey Logano, Shell Pennzoil Ford
#24-Jeff Gordon, Drive to End Hunger Chevy
#29-Kevin Harvick, Budweiser Chevy
#32-Ken Schrader, TBA Ford
#42-Juan Pablo, Target Chevy
#43-Aric Almirola, Smithfield Ford
#48-Jimmie Johnson, Lowe's Yellow Chevy
#55-Mark Martin, Aaron's Dream Machine Toyota
#56-Martin Truex Jr, NAPA Toyota
#78-Kurt Busch, Furniture Row Racing Chevy
#88-Dale Earnhardt Jr, National Guard Chevy
#99-Carl Edwards, Fastenal Ford
*Terry Labonte, Bill Elliott, and A.J. Almendinger have also secured spots, but at this time have
no plans to race.
That is all we know about the race so far. The format, starting positions, and mandatory
pit stops will all be determined by fans votes.
(If you would like to vote, you can go to NASCAR.com and make your voice
count!) Items to be voted upon are the
race format (number of laps in each segment), and if there will be a pit stop
at the end of the first segment, and if so, how many tires. You can also vote on how many cars should be
eliminated after the second segment, and finally, you can vote on which firesuit Ms. Sprint Cup will wear.
Seriously? The firesuit?
Really?
The starting lineup will be determined by onsite fan voting. Fans can choose either career wins, the 2012
Sprint Cup Championship Points finishing order, or the point at which each
driver won their first pole in the 2012 season.
The contrasts between each method and the resulting starting lineups are
quite stark.
For example, if the career wins option is chosen, Jeff Gordon
would be the pole sitter and Jimmie Johnson would start on the front row as
well. Based on the 2012 standings, it
would be Johnson on the pole, next to team mate Kasey Kahne. Neither Brad Keselowski
nor Clint Bowyer, the drivers finishing first and second in points last season,
won a pole, and therefore are not eligible for the race. This is the option I think will win, and I
will let you know why shortly. The third
option, when the pole was won, would put 2012 Daytona 500 pole sitter Carl
Wards on the pole next to Mark Martin.
This was the one I am hoping will win.
However, you have to take into account that this is a fan vote, and the
second option, the 2012 points standings, will give Dale Earnhardt, Jr. a
higher starting position, tenth, than any other choice.
Regarding the other options, I voted for three segments of 40
laps, 20 laps and then 15 to determine the winner. I think the 40 laps up front gives everyone a solid chance to shake down the car. I also selected a 4 tire pit stop at the end
of the first break. Then there is the
second segment, which I would like to be 20 laps. There is the possibility of the elimination
of drivers, up to six, (I voted for four).
I think that 20 lap segment could be fairly exciting with elimination on
the line. Then, if I get my way, there
will be the final 15 laps among 15 drivers to determine the winner.
Speaking of winners, who has the best shot of taking the win? Well, it is Daytona, so it could be anyone in
the race, but here are my best five:
1.
Dale Earnhardt, Jr.-
He won this event in 2008, his first year with Hendrick
Motorsports. He inherited the plate
track ability and always seems to be running near the front of them when he
chooses. He has not won a points race on a plate track
since 2004, but this isn’t a points race.
There is a limited field, he will have three team mates in the field,
and one of his favorite drafting partners, Tony Stewart, will be in the race as
well.
2.
Matt Kenseth- In the first test NASCAR held
with the new generation 6 car, Kenseth in his new #20 ride with Joe Gibbs paced
the field, fastest on the first day.
Kenseth has also shown that he is a great plate racer as of late,
winning two Daytona 500’s and a race at Talladega last
season. How was was
Kenseth and how much was Roush power?
Stay tuned…
3.
Tony Stewart- The 2001, 2002, and 2007 winner
of the event seems to do well at this track in every race except the Daytona
500. Stewart has an eye for Daytona and
even though he won’t have an official team mate in the form of Ryan Newman or Danica Patrick, there are plenty of other Chevrolets out
there, including one with a big 88 on the side.
4.
Jeff Gordon- Clint Bowyer is not in the race,
so Jeff should be fine. He has a few
team mates to work with and has always had success at Daytona, even though he
has not found the winner’s circle on a plate track since 2007. In two of the scenarios, Jeff will start no
worse than eighth. If the fans select
career wins, he’ll start on the pole.
5.
Kyle Busch- I cannot really go against the
defending Champion of the race, and this type of race is made for Kyle
Style. Fast, go, win or wreck. Busch is usually strong on the plate tracks
but needs to be able to stay out of trouble.
Blocking will get him wrecked, as history has shown. He has two Joe Gibbs team mates in the field
with Kenseth and Denny Hamlin, and if they can work together, one of them may
be able to take the win.
Dark Horse Selection: Mark Martin-Probably the sentimental
favorite to win, Martin might need some help from the fans to find his way to
Victory Lane in the Sprint Unlimited. If
they choose career wins or 2012 poles, he will start no worse than fifth. If they choose 2012 standings, he starts 18th. Regardless, the race is long enough for
someone as patient as Martin to work his way through the field. If he and Martin Truex
can hook up, they may have a shot to pull off some magic. Slingshot, engage!
PICKS!
As for official race picks, I’m going to enlist the brains of some folks who have been watching racing for as long as, or longer than I have. We will have a weekly competition, each selecting one driver each week. We swill score the points of our selected driver, and at the end of the year, one fortune teller will reign supreme. But we’re going to have our work cut out for us. We have to go up against “Mr. Seven.” Mr. Seven is a phantom player, and he will get the points of the seventh place finisher each week.
First on the list is my old friend Nate. (I’m still trying to get Nate to be a writer on the site…) I’ve known Nate since I was in High School, way back when. Nate’s a car guy and has a decent grasp on the sport.
Then we have Brian, who might pen an article or five as the season progresses. He’s a car guy too! In fact, he sells them!
And then there’s me. Twenty-three years of racing experience, all on my couch. That qualifies me, doesn’t it?
Here are our picks for the Sprint Unlimited at Daytona,
February 16th, 2013 at 8pm:
Jim: 88-Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: “I’m going to go with Dale Jr., simply because it is Daytona, it is a plate track, it is a limited field, he has a massive number of drafting partners, and he seems to be able to see the air just like his dad.”
Nate: 20-Matt Kenseth: “Matt Kenseth hasn’t lost a step since moving from the #17 Fusion at RFR to the #20 Camry at JGR. He posted the first, second, and third fastest speed during Preseason Thunder at Daytona in January. Kenseth’s numbers at plate tracks don’t lie, considering he won the Daytona 500 and the Aaron’s 499 last year.
Brian: 14-Tony Stewart: “The way that race is being structured, with the fans determining a number of the variables, Stewart is one of the guys I see as a Master of Adapting to Change.”
Mr. Seven: “I’m going to take whoever finished in 7th place. I’ll let you know when the race is over.”
Obviously as this is a non-points paying exhibition, we’re not going to score points, but the highest finisher will get to choose first for the Daytona 500!
Be sure to watch the Sprint Unlimited this weekend, not because it’s entertaining, but to see if we were right!
Remember to follow me on Twitter @Forewasabi Sometimes I give stuff away.