Fast Forward ~ The Advocare 500 At Atlanta Fantasy Race Picks And Preview
The Track: Atlanta
Motor Speedway
Location:
Hampton, Georgia
Length:
1.54 Mile Quad Oval
Banking:
Turns- 24 degrees, Straightaways- 5 degrees
Pit
Road Speed: 45 MPH
The Race: The
AdvoCare 500
500
Laps/ 266.5 Miles 325
Laps
Defending
Champion: Denny Hamlin 142.020 MPH
Most
recent winner: Denny Hamlin 142.020 MPH
Track
Record: Dale Earnhardt, 11/12/1995, 163.633 MPH
Race
Record: Dale Earnhardt, 11/12/1995, 163.633 MPH
Qualifying
Record: Geoff Bodine, 11/16/1997, 197.478 MPH
TV:ESPN, 7:30PM EST
Radio:
SiriusXM 90, PRN (www.goprn)
The History:
Was originally called Atlanta International Raceway,
measuring at 1.5 miles.
7/31/1960-
First race was run, and won by Fireball Roberts
1970-Track
was remeasured to 1.522 miles
1990-Renamed
Atlanta Motor Speedway
3/20/1993-Morgan
Shepherd becomes the oldest race winner at 51 years, 5 months, 8 days.
1997-Track
was reversed, and reconfigured to 1.54 miles with the addition of the front
stretch dogleg.
3/11/2001-Kevin
Harvick sets the mark for closest margin of victory by 0.006 seconds over Jeff
Gordon
3/9/2008-
Kyle Busch becomes the youngest race winner at 22 years, 10 months, 7 days.
The
Contenders:
Who
do I think will have a shot to win at the A-T-L?
Matt Kenseth: Who has
score more points here in the last ten races than any other driver? Who has 8 top five finishes and 14 top tens at Atlanta?
Who, after winning at Bristol, has the hot hand and momentum on his
side? This guy.
Jimmie
Johnson: I don’t buy
it. Not for one second. If you think Jimmie and Chad are content
going into the Chase in second place, you are out of your skull. Jimmie wants another win. He’s done it here three times before, along
with 8 other top fives.
Kevin Harvick: The
Closer. Harvick has 6 top ten finishes
in the last ten races here. Look for him
to be a contender this week, as he will try to solidify his Chase birth with
another win as well. Remember March,
2001? Harvick can get it done here.
Jeff Gordon: The 4 time
Champion needs to turn this season around, but it might already be too
late. Gordon will probably bring home
the checkered flag, or the steering wheel trying. Nothing to lose. He finished 2nd here last year to
Denny Hamlin, and won the year prior.
Kasey Kahne: Hungry Hungry Hungry. After
finishing to Matt Kenseth…again, Kahne has got to find a way to get to the next
level. Breaaking
through with a win this week will have to be about speed, and he’s got it on
1.5 mile ovals.
Dark Horse
Pick: Carl Edwards: Difficult to call Edwards a Dark Horse, but he’s not
been running great lately. On the flip
side, you cannot ignore his record here, either.
There
are my picks for this week at Atlanta, but how did I do at Bristol? Mercy…
Brad
Keselowski: A crowd –pleasing 30th.
Kyle Busch: In his bid for another weekend sweep, Busch
could manage only an 11th place finish.
Jimmie
Johnson: 36th? Really Jimmie?
Matt Kenseth: Redemption!
Winner!
Kasey Kahne: Double redemption! 2nd
place.
Dark Horse
Pick: Brian Vickers: Triple redemption! 4th place!
Bristol
recap: 1st, 2nd, 4th, 11th, 30th,
36th. Mulligan Stew!
Race Pro Picks!
Before
we get to the Atlanta picks, let’s see how we all did with our Bristol
selections. I scored my 6th
win of the season, and took over second place again. Fitz had a good run with Kahne, and Kevin’s
choice of Logan netted him a top five.
Player |
Selection |
Race Pts |
Previous Pts |
Total Pts |
Wins |
DNFs |
Mr. Seven |
24 |
37 |
894 |
931 |
0 |
0 |
Jim |
20 |
48 |
831 |
879 |
6 |
1 |
PattyKay |
2 |
14 |
833 |
847 |
1 |
2 |
Alabama |
5 |
42 |
774 |
816 |
0 |
1 |
Brian |
2 |
14 |
783 |
797 |
1 |
3 |
Kevin |
22 |
39 |
680 |
719 |
0 |
5 |
On with the show. Here
are our picks for the AdvoCare 500 at Atlanta, at
7:30PM on ESPN:
JIM
FITZGERALD: So, as the top point getter for last week
with a win from Matt Kenseth, I get the honors, haha,
of picking first and letting you all pick my choice apart. I'll keep it nice
and short. My driver has scored more points at Atlanta in the last ten race
here than anyone else. Four top five finishes and seven top tens,
along with leading more than 200 laps in that span make my pick easy this week.
He leads the series in wins, and I look for Matt Kenseth to continue
his winning ways and get as much of a lead during the Chase as possible.
ALABAMA
FITZ: Well, congratulations to Sir PickAWinner
again. I wish I could get inside of your
head! I wasn't sure about Kenseth until
I realized that the huge gap between his Avg Start
(21.6) and Avg Finish (12.7) is probably because
of his ability to make this track come to him as the race goes on. This
is probably a good solid pick. If he doesn't win, he should be close! His
only draw back is his qualifying record here.
Out of 24 runs, he has only 5 qualifying runs resulting in the top
10! Traffic can be a problem, especially this late in the pre-Chase
season. Can he stay out of trouble here? We’ll see. Who is next?
BRIAN
MARCHETTI: You.
ALABAMA
FITZ: Oh. At Bristol, Kahne almost pulled it out for me! Kevin, I almost left you alone with no wins,
but couldn't pull it off, so I'm still with you buddy! That was probably the shortest 12 laps of
Kasey's career and the longest of Jim's!
A second place is the best I've done this year. To play on a President
Starkey comment, "Stuff's getting better every race."
KEVIN
ABRAHAM: “The Postman?”
ALABAMA
FITZ: Yes, great movie. Now be quiet.
This week at Atlanta has the same cast of characters. My research shows me four drivers stand out
here: Johnson, Kenseth, Edwards, and Earnhardt.
Numbers say Johnson, with 3 wins, 11 Top 5s, and 13 Top 10s, and no
(that would be ZERO) DNF's out of 21 races, would be the odds on favorite. Carl Edwards is the exact opposite of Kyle
with the same number of races. His record of 3-8-10 in 15 races is pretty
impressive. He does have 3 DNF's here, and has already won this year. Will he
try again?
BRIAN
MARCHETTI: Does everyone remember when Carl Edwards was the only obvious pick
in Atlanta? What happened to those days?
KEVIN
ABRAHAM: The COT and losing a race at the track happened to Edwards. Also I
think Edwards has lost some of his edge not inflating his ego winning in the Nationwide series (like what happened to Kyle Busch in
2012). Bobbly Labonte was the MAN at Atlanta right after it was turned into a
cookie cutter in the late 1990's. He
always seemed to have that Interstate Batteries Pontiac near the front in every
race there. How I miss the old oval
Atlanta, with Morgan Shepherd contending for wins, and the season finales that
happened at that configuration.
PATTYKAY
LILLEY: Edwards? He stopped winning, and
that was right around the time he gave flying lessons to young Brad Keselowski and
NASCAR parked his cute derriere. Carry
on, Fitz.
ALABAMA
FITZ: Dale isn't bad here, with a record of 1 win, 8 Top 5s and 11 Top 10's out
of 25 races. He also has 2 poles and
only 2 DNFs, so count on him for some points.
His Start/Finish is a respectable 16/12, so he can move up. The 12 is little scary though as far as major
points are concerned. Kyle Busch, in my opinion, is very suspect here, with a
record of 1-3-4, even with the win. Only
4 Top 10 finishes in 15 races was enough to move him down the list, although,
you never know. Clint Bowyer is looking
at the big picture, so I don't expect a win from him, but points should be
good. Watch out for him during the Chase though as he could add some
excitement. I looked at others as well,
Keselowski included....not much of a record, but nobody does this early in a
career. Still, 2 Top Ten's
out of only 4 races could be an indication. I haven't mentioned my pick, Kasey Kahne. I'm going to stick with him. I think he has the drive and the
equipment. His record at Atlanta is 2
wins, 6 Top 5s and 8 Top 10s out of 16 races.
Eight out of sixteen in the Top 10? Nothing to be sneezed at! He has doubled Kyle's record and has run only
one more race here. Kasey's recent performance
during the last two races tells me he is determined to get another win. I like determination. That was what hooked me up with Mark Martin
in 1987. He was determined, yet a
gentleman. At Bristol, Kasey took a page
from Mark's book. He was determined, and
a gentleman. I like that.
JIM
FITZGERALD: Kasey definitely earned respect from me on Saturday. After being the recipient of some rough times
as a result of shootouts with the Gibbs Gang, he could have punted Kenseth, and
I almost would have understood. Almost. But he
didn’t…he tried to pass him cleanly.
That’s a tough situation. You
bumper tag the leader of the race on the last lap and get the win, and you’re a
jerk who can’t win without passing “dirty.”
You try to pass clean and can’t get it done, and you’re not hungry
enough. I think Kasey made the right
move though, whether I had picked him or not.
As far as Kahne’s chances this week? I think they are pretty good. Look at his record on the other 1.5 mile
tracks this year. Runner up finishes at
Charlotte, Texas and Kansas. Could be a solid pick.
KEVIN
ABRAHAM: So far we have Jim and Fitz keeping their Bristol picks for Atlanta,
and both are viable picks. For a while I
thought Bobby Labonte was going to pull off an upset. We can thank Jeff Gordon for running over him
when Clint Bowyer spun. I also thought
Brian hired Kyle Busch to take my pick out of the race to win the dollar, but
Logano rebounded to finish fifth. Back to Atlanta, I look at who was strong on
the sister tracks of Charlotte and Texas.
The two that come to mind that were strong were Kyle Busch and Martin
Truex, Jr. I am not sticking by Logano
here this week. I have not seen anything from him at this track that screams “WIN
coming.” This week I am going to pick
up a Snickers bar with my new found wealth and take Kyle Busch for the win.
ALABAMA
FITZ: Kevin, I see him as an upset winner.
He could have been the "dark horse" pick for Jim. I would consider that. It's just that his record here makes me
uncomfortable. I can understand your
thoughts on the Brian / Kyle thing...would Brian really do that?!
BRIAN
MARCHETTI: With a smile on my face! And honestly, Brian spent 20 hours in bed,
missed the race, and has only one concern.
To whom do I owe this dollar, and what's the address to send it to? And as for Shrub on my payroll, if it were
true, all of you would have multiple DNF's.
What do you say, PattyKay?
PATTYKAY
LILLEY: Good Monday morning, Gentlemen. I see there's a whole lot of
speculation while picking winners for Atlanta and the race that is NOT the
Southern 500... Apologies to Darlington and all the folks in
SC. Are we all reading the same stats? Are we even at the same track? I
see picks for Kenseth, Kahne and Kyle Busch. Hmm, seems to be a bit of a theme
running through those names. Alliterations abound! Fitz, I admire and
appreciate your ability to state ALL the numbers, but I must tell you, I find
it of very little use what someone did in 1997. Ya
know? I prefer to look at the fresh stats, and I usually use two criteria for
sorting them. I bring up race stats for the past 6 races only. Then separately,
I bring up the same stats for the last 10 races... just for comparison as to
spotting a trend. Even that is generally 5 years out and
though not totally useless, bordering on it.
KEVIN
ABRAHAM: You’re stalling…
PATTYKAY
LILLEY: Not at all. The drivers I see at
the top of the list include Kenseth, Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, Brian
Vickers and Martin Truex, Jr. They are not, however the exact ones I've elected
to run with in Yahoo Fantasy. For our purposes, we only need look at the most
likely winner, and quite frankly boys, I believe you've all overlooked him
completely.
BRIAN
MARCHETTI: And this driver would be…
PATTYKAY
LILLEY: He
sports two wins in the last six races, and they weren't all that long ago. He
leads in laps led during that same time frame by a TON! Granted, he is noted
for being one of those first or last with nothing in-between type drivers, but
to me he looks really sporty on the super-fast oval at Atlanta. In
keeping with the "K" theme, my pick for Atlanta is Kurt Busch.
If he doesn't win, at least I know I'll have had fun watching him try.
JIM
FITZGERALD: Kurt has had some good runs, and I think we would all like to see
him and that car in Victory Lane. I’m
not sure that the combination of the car and driver can close the deal,
though. There always seems to be that
ONE THING. Almost a year ago, Kurt Busch
sat in the media center at Dover for the announcement that he was leaving
Phoenix and going over to drive the No. 78.
In that presser, someone commented that they thought it was a lateral
move. Busch spoke up for his new team
owner, and said that calling the move lateral was “a slap in the face of (team
owner) Barney Visser.” I can honestly say that I would agree with
him now. There have been many races
where Kurt Busch has been a solid contender, more so than when he was with James
Finch’s Phoenix team. However, Busch
won’t be happy until he wins, and I’m not sure I can pick Busch until he shows
me he CAN win….again.
PATTYKAY
LILLEY: Interesting
theory... I can't pick someone to be a winner until he is already a winner.
It's tough to argue with you as you sit there with a pot-load of wins on this
year and I have one... but argue I will. I've seen Kurt win. I've seen his
brother win. Maybe they got it from trying to kill each other while growing up,
but there is a spark there that I love and admire. Brad K has it too. Others, not so much. After watching it run this year, I no
longer can question the ability of the #78 to get the job done... with Kurt
behind the wheel. He remains my pick this Labor Day weekend. If he doesn't win,
at least I'll know he tried! So, this
leaves Brian and his pick.
BRIAN
MARCHETTI: In the last 10 races at Atlanta, Jeff Gordon has an average finish
of 7.7, and Matt Kenseth an average finish of 7.4. Nobody else is in single digits. If we break it down to the last 8 races,
Jimmie Johnson throws his name in the single digit rankings with a 9.9. Today, I decided to look at some different stats,
to see if they would help sway my guessing luck. When I look at speeds, oddly, or not oddly,
seems like Jimmie Johnson usually has the fastest car on this track, whether
it's early, late, restarts, or just the fastest lap. No doubt when Chad sets up the right car,
Jimmie drives the wheels off of it to the Finish Line. I'm thinking the 48 this week,
and it goes against my "he's already made the Chase theory" where I
usually look at Bubble Drivers to see who is the hungriest.
KEVIN
ABRAHAM: That is why I stay away from Johnson this time of year. They have
nothing to lose with a few bad finishes before the Chase.
BRIAN
MARCHETTI: NASCAR is about Corporate Money, and Lowes wants to see their car on
TV. Cars running 15th don't get a lot of
TV time.
JIM
FITZGERALD: I think that desired TV time
will come in the last ten races. I don’t
care when or where, you can never count Johnson out. That team is a weekly good pick.
PATTYKAY
LILLEY: Of course Johnson is a good pick. Help yourself. Ever since this
"Chase" thing came to be, that team, aka Chad Knaus, has spent the
summer in experimental mode. He's locked in. He can't get any better. This is
when Chad gets to put theory into practice and try out all of his new
"innovations" for the Chase races. Frankly, I'd be happy if every one
of you picked Johnson. Not arguing Gordon's stats here. He has them, to be
sure. He also has a really cruddy finishing record for 2013, considering that
is Hendrick's flagship car. Slump?
Age? Doesn't care anymore? I don't know, but it
mentally disqualifies him from my consideration. Of course, I'm not winning
this game either... but I'm still close. We shall see gentlemen; we shall
see...
Indeed we shall. Best of luck to everyone,including you all playing along at home. We hope our picks serve you well, should you choose to use them. Enjoy the race on Sunday night, and be sure to have a safe and happy Labor Day weekend! Until next time, here's a quote about Georgia!
“I'm a country boy. I grew up in Georgia." –Jason Aldean
Remember
to follow me on Twitter @Forewasabi Sometimes I give stuff away.
Jim Fitzgerald @Forewasabi
PattyKay Lilley @MamaPKL
Kevin Abraham @KevDogg329
Marshall Gabell @Gabell_Racing
Who is YOUR pick to win this week?