Fast Forward ~ The GeICO 400 At Chicago Fantasy Race Picks And Preview
9/12/2013
Race Fans
Forever Staff
The Track: Chicagoland
Speedway
Location: Joliet, Illinois
Length: 1.5 mile tri-oval
Banking: 18 degrees in turns 1-2;
18 degrees in turns 3-4;
5 degrees on the backstretch,
11 degrees on the front stretch
Pit Road Speed/Length:45 MPH
The Race: The GEICO 400
267 Laps/ 400.5 Miles
Defending Champion: Brad Keselowski
143.363 MPH
Most recent winner: Brad Keselowski
143.363 MPH
Track Record: Brad Keselowski 143.363
MPH September 2012
Race Record: Brad Keselowski 143.363
MPH September 2012
Qualifying record: Jimmie Johnson,
188.147 MPH, July 2005
TV: ESPN, 2:00 PM EST 9/15/2013
Radio: Sirius XM 90, MRN (www.motorracingnetwork.com)
The History:
2001- Speedway opened
7/14/2001-First race run, won by
Kevin Harvick
7/12/2008- Kyle Busch becomes the
youngest winner at 23 years, 2 months, 10 days.
7/12/2008- Kyle Busch records the
closest margin of victory, defeating Jimmie Johnson by 0.159 seconds.
7/11/2009- Mark Martin becomes the
oldest winner at 50 years, 6 months, 2 days.
The Contenders:
Who do I think will have a shot to
win at Chi-Town?
Brad Keselowski: The defending Champion of an event
will usually get a look, and BK is no exception this week. His numbers are not stellar, but in order to
win you have to be in a position to win.
Keselowski led 76 laps here last year to Jimmie Johnson’s 172. No one else led more than six.
Jimmie Johnson: Ol’ 5
time, as stated, led 172 laps here last year.
He has never won here but usually runs strong, as shown by 6 top fives and 9 top tens.
Matt Kenseth: Kenseth has not set the world on
fire here, but he has been competitive in a lot of places this season which are
usually reserved for others. I look for
Kenseth to at least be a strong factor.
Tony Stewart has three wins here.
Two of them were in the 20 car which Kenseth pilots now.
Kyle Busch: Busch has won here before in 2008,
and finished 4th last year.
If Kyle has another meltdown in this year’s version of the Chase, I
think his team may be talking him off of a ledge. I expect them to do everything they can to
give him a car capable of winning and getting a strong start to this Chase.
Kevin Harvick: Harvick whomped
the field the first two years this track held races. Six top 5’s and seven top tens
later, he still has to be considered a favorite.
DARK HORSE PICK-Clint Bowyer: Bowyer is only a dark horse because
if he wins he may very well get booed off of the face of the earth. I’m a bit anxious to hear driver
introductions this week.
There are my picks for this week at
Chicago, but let’s look back and see how I did with my Richmond picks.
Kyle Busch: A nineteenth place finish. Booo.
Clint Bowyer: Had a top 5 going until that late
race spin. Finished 25th. Booo.
Joey Logano: Finished 22nd. Booo.
Matt Kenseth: Call the highlight reel…I got a top
ten. Kenseth finished 6th.
Kevin Harvick: Harvick finished 11th.
DARK HORSE PICK-Denny Hamlin: Finished 21st.
This week, my numbers are a 6th,
an 11th, a 19th, a 21st, a 22nd,
and a 25th.
Impressive, right?
Race Pro Picks!
Before we get to the Chicago picks,
let’s back it up and see how our pros did at Richmond.
Just like the big boys, our points
will rest after Richmond as well. I
guarantee we won’t kick anyone out and replace them with someone else, though!
Here are the Richmond results:
Player |
Selection |
Race Pts |
Previous Pts |
Total Pts |
Wins |
DNFs |
Mr. Seven |
56 |
37 |
969 |
1006 |
0 |
0 |
Jim |
18 |
25 |
911 |
936 |
6 |
1 |
PattyKay |
15 |
20 |
887 |
907 |
1 |
2 |
Alabama |
15 |
20 |
824 |
844 |
0 |
1 |
Brian |
18 |
25 |
813 |
838 |
1 |
3 |
Kevin |
22 |
22 |
766 |
788 |
1 |
5 |
Mr. Seven wa able to keep the lead, and did so with a 70 point
cushion. I finished in second while PattyKay Lilley came in third place. After that is was Alabama Fitz in 4th
place followed by Brian Marchetti, and Kevin Abraham
brought up the rear, 218 points back.
Now, as we are reseeded by wins:
Player |
Selection |
Race Pts |
Previous Pts |
Total Pts |
Wins |
DNFs |
Jim |
18 |
25 |
936 |
2018 |
6 |
1 |
PattyKay |
15 |
20 |
907 |
2003 |
1 |
2 |
Brian |
18 |
25 |
838 |
2003 |
1 |
3 |
Kevin |
22 |
22 |
788 |
2003 |
1 |
5 |
Mr. Seven |
56 |
37 |
1006 |
2000 |
0 |
0 |
Alabama |
15 |
20 |
844 |
2000 |
0 |
1 |
I am now in the lead with a 15 point spread
over second based on 6 wins during the year.
PattyKay, Brian, and Kevin each scored a win
during the season which earned them all three bonus points and a tie for second
place. Mr. Seven and Alabama Fitz were
unable to score a victory, therefore no bonus points
were awarded.
Now, with the points reset and the
game on, let’s get on with the Chicago picks.
Based on your last place position in the standings, Alabama Fitz, you’re
on the clock!
ALABAMA FITZ: Well, for a while, I
had visions of sugar plums (first win) dancing in my head. BOOM! Let's see,
I've lost to a flat tire, running out of gas, hitting the wall, and now an
ill-timed pit stop. Oh well. Let's get to it. Kasey
Kahne stinks here as does Kyle Busch. Kahne has close to a minus7
point differential on start/finish. If Kyle doesn't finish in
the top ten, he's 13th or worse, although 3 Top Tens and a win out of
eight races must be considered. This track doesn't like Kenseth or he
doesn't like it, don't know which. Earnhardt is absolutely horrendous
here even though he also has a win here. Keselowski didn't make the
Chase, so....
JIM FITZGERALD: So…
ALABAMA FITZ: So, one of them will
win because I didn't pick any of them! Bowyer on the other hand, is six
Top Tens out of seven races! Pretty heady
stuff! Plus, if I remember, this is his best year so far, and he may be
looking to prove it's not a fluke. I think he may try harder...maybe too
hard and make an error.
JIM FITZGERALD: Like spinning out?
ALABAMA FITZ: Wow. Anyway, Johnson is nine out of eleven,
including six Top Fives....pretty steady. I want to pick Bowyer because I
think he is hungrier, but I'm going with Johnson because: I think he is the steadier
driver AND I believe ALL the stuff I read on the internet!!! It says
Johnson was using the last few races to test different strategies, etc.,
getting ready for the Chase. At the drop of the flag for the Chase Race,
I think you will see his ship suddenly right itself and
Jimmie Johnson will sail off into the sunset to Victory Lane.
KEVIN ABRAHAM: You’ve painted quite a pretty picture
there.
PATTYKAY LILLEY: You are welcome to
JJ this week, Fitz. In other weeks I may fight you for him; not here. Enjoy as
his bad luck keeps streaking. I have someone else in mind.
ALABAMA FITZ: Well, Harvick was in my
sights too, but Bowyer and Johnson kept pushing him down the list. I
generally have one or two drivers that I feel could steal the win. It's
usually Kyle Busch and someone else. This week is no exception. I'm
expecting Busch again and Harvick also. I wonder if you might have the
right guy, Patty.
PATTYKAY LILLEY: Just one of those
"feelings" Fitz. And what would be sweeter than for Harvick to move
to SHR as reigning Champion, along with past Champions Stewart and Busch the
elder? I rather like that scenario.
ALABAMA FITZ: Now that's something I
hadn't considered.
PATTYKAY LILLEY: I'm a
"girl" and I think like that. Call it "Hero worship" I
guess. Despite starting his career as a bit of a hothead... or maybe more than
a bit, Kevin is a good driver, maybe even a great driver. His style has always
reminded me of David Pearson, seemingly not even a part of the race until the
end, and then comes the pounce. I'd feel safe in saying that Harvick might well
have had a Championship or two, had RCR made a better effort to keep up with
other teams that were getting faster with each race. That happened for too many
years, not even quite a bridesmaid. Not saying SHR will be any better or worse,
but at least we know they'll be trying. RCR is trying now, but it's for the
Dillon boys, not for Harvick or Burton, quite obviously. Menard doesn't count.
He can buy a ride with anyone. Just my girlish thoughts. I like Kevin at Chicago.
BRIAN MARCHETTI: Is that official?
PATTYKAY LILLEY: Well, alright
then. Let’s make it official. Have we all got Richmond out of our system?
If not, we're in trouble. Chicago! When I hear that word I think of a couple of
things. First would be the fire, blamed unfairly on Mrs. O'Leary's cow. Second
is, as we have been saying, Kevin Harvick. Not sure why, but since the track
has been there I think of Kevin. Oh yes... he won the first two races on this
droning, boring God-forsaken cookie-cutter track. Oh, I'm sorry! Did you get the
impression that I don't like this track. Bravo! You
catch on quick. My predictions...Sunday's race (It is on Sunday, isn't it?)
will bore most of us to tears, and Kevin Harvick will win, having
led a total of no more than 3 laps. Oh, and there will be Football games on FOX and CBS. Just sayin...
KEVIN ABRAHAM: Speaking of football,
I was watching Monday night’s game between the Washington, D.C. Pro Football
team and the Philadelphia Eagles when I saw the news come out about the penalties
to Michael Watrip Racing. Newman is in and Truex is out. Did this have any effect on anyone’s picks?
ALABAMA FITZ: Thanks but no
thanks. I'll keep my pick. What
about you, BKM?
BRIAN MARCHETTI: You’re going to be
sorry you asked. I did my homework this
week.
JIM FITZGERALD: First time for
everything, I guess.
BRIAN MARCHETTI: (Finger gesture) So,
Chicago. I once went to New York City to
see Chicago and confused the heck out of my friends (a little Broadway humor,
and a true story). Anyway, as we all
have learned, I'm a Stats-man, and the numbers don't really help me this
week. Driver Ratings put Jimmie Johnson
on top, followed by Tony Stewart, Brian Vickers, Matt Kenseth, and Kyle
Busch.....none of that sets me on fire.
"Ten Race" Driver Average puts Jeff Gordon on top with a 7.1,
followed by Kenseth at 8.3, Kurt Busch at 9.2, Vickers at 10.0, and Kevin
Harvick at 10.4. Still not a lot of
help, but, I will note that Kenseth and Vickers made both lists. Of the drivers listed on these 2 lists, only
3 have won here in the past. Harvick in
'01 and '02, Stewart in '04, '07, and '11, and Kyle Busch in '08. I'm still not feeling it. Nothing is jumping out, saying "Pick Me,
Pick Me!!!"
JIM FITZGERALD: Fitz, that’s means something different in
your house, does it not?
ALABAMA FITZ: I’ll never tell.
BRIAN MARCHETTI: Johnson, Stewart,
and Vickers all have Average Running Positions in the Top 10, but when looking
at the Quality of Passes, and being passed, Stewart
seems to move around a lot, and a little more than my liking. One of my favorite Statistics to review is
Fastest Late in the Run. Stewart,
Kenseth, Harvick, Johnson, and Martin Truex Jr. hold the Top 5 in that
order. Hmmm, Truex
Jr.? Fastest Laps shows Johnson,
Kenseth, and Stewart, again. Hey, this
is getting to be fun, right? Yeah, I
don't think so either. Let's look some
more. Fastest on Restarts are Johnson,
Stewart, and Kenseth. I'm sensing a
pattern here. How about Laps in the Top
15, we have Johnson, Stewart, and Jeff Gordon?
I remember him, finished 13th this year, didn't he? In the last 8 races, there have been 2,139
laps run at Chicago, and Johnson has lead 479 of them, and Kenseth 344. This is starting to get easier on me. I could go on with another half a dozen speed
stats, but they all say the same thing.
Johnson in the No. 48 Lowes Chevrolet is the car to beat at
Chicago. Granted, Chad Knaus and their team have been playing games the last few
weeks, but I have no fear. The only time
Johnson ever lets me down is when somebody else creates a constraint to which
no driver could overcome. I remember
back 6 or 7 years ago, Johnson had this unfortunate
repeated thing where he would go into a spin, appeared to be done for the day,
and yet manage to not hit a wall or another car, and continue to run the
race. My buddies and I use to joke about
it....when other drivers would have such luck, we would say Johnson taught them
how to do that! Some drivers can drive
thru the spin, and some just sit there and wait. Johnson waits for nothing, and nobody. Any question on where I'm going this
week? Old Faithful in the No. 48
takes the lead and keeps it this week.
KEVIN ABRAHAM: Another pick for
Johnson.
JIM FITZGERALD: Doesn’t surprise me,
but what does is that he went through all of that number crunching when he
could have just gone to the closet and pulled out the Lowes hat. I went with a different method this
week. This week at Chicago, I chose a
method of madness. All of those drivers
in the Chase will be looking to "make a statement" or have a good
points days and solidify themselves as a true contender, and not necessarily
have a win in their plans unless they completely dominate the day. The rest of the field is, to put it bluntly,
pissed off. They don't matter anymore,
as the Chase drivers will get all of the main press and attention. After Richmond, there are a few drivers in my
mind who have the right to be angry. The
first one is Ryan Newman. I think if he
had any hard evidence about Bowyer spinning on purpose, Bowyer would be at home
with his legs propped up....in a cast.
Unfortunately though, Newman is on his way out at Stewart-Haas, so I
don't see the full focus put there. The
other is Jeff Gordon. Jeff painted the
inside of the Chicago retaining wall with a little bit of high speed DuPont
last year and had a bad finish. This
year though, look for Gordon to be strong.
But he won't win either. Now I
went to look for someone who really wants to make that statement, and that is
Kurt Busch. A win by Busch would be a
huge confidence builder for him and the team as well, and a great start to the
Chase. But he won’t win either. Now that I got that nonsense out of my
system, I'll tell you who my real pick is.
Husky Tools all around kids. It's going to be a Matt Kenseth kind of day. Two top 5's in the last eight races, but this
is a different Matt Kenseth and a better car for him to drive here.
ALABAMA FITZ: Jim, I admit Matt is an
accomplished driver and has good equipment under him. This year, at this track, could be different,
but his record doesn't indicate it. But
then again, you did pick six winners this year, so...
KEVIN ABRAHAM: True, Jim does have
the point lead now as we have reset our Fantasy points to match those in the
Chase format. He must be doing something
right and he has the momentum! Going
into Chicago, momentum is on the side of Carl Edwards and Joey Logano.
Going off past history, Jimmie Johnson will magically flip a switch and start
to dazzle like every other year. I looked at taking Johnson, due to that
stat, but with his luck in the last month, I am going to hold off jumping on
the Johnson Express. I thought of Clint Bowyer, but after his 'spin' at the end
of the race, I look for someone to get retribution on him, so he is out. Kyle
Busch and Kasey Kahne don't impress me on this track, and that is why I am
going to join Jim and pick Matt Kenseth to add to his point lead with his win in Chicagoland.
JIM FITZGERALD: Okay, NOW I want to change my pick.
KEVIN ABRAHAM: Wow.
There
are our picks for the GEICO 400 at Chicago, Sunday at 2:00pm EST on ESPN. Good luck to you if you have chosen to take
our advice with your fantasy picks this week.
If you’re not with us, then may you have the same fate and finishing
position of a Start and Park team! We’ll
be back next week, but the Chase starts now, and here is a quote about Chicago!
“Eventually,
I think Chicago might be the most beautiful great city left in the world.” –Frank Lloyd Wright
Actually, two quotes, because this
one is too good to let pass by:
“It’s wonderful to be here in the
great state of Chicago.” –Dan Quayle
Jim Fitzgerald @Forewasabi
PattyKay Lilley @MamaPKL
Kevin Abraham @KevDogg329
Marshall Gabell @Gabell_Racing
Who is YOUR pick to win this week?