the AAA Texas 500 fantasy race picks and preview
10/31/2013
Race Fans Forever Staff
“The future is like a corridor into which we can see only by the light coming from behind.”
–Edward Weyer, Jr.
Welcome back to our weekly round table of racing preview and fantasy racing picks. I am Jim Fitzgerald, and as always we have PattyKay Lilley, Kevin Abraham, Alabama Fitz, Brian Marchetti, and last but not least, Marshall Gabell. We’ll discuss race picks in a bit, but here’s the background material.
The Track: Texas Motor Speedway
Location: Ft.Worth, Texas
Length: 1.5 Mile Quad Oval
Banking: 24 degrees in turns 1-2
24 degrees in turns 3-4
5 degrees on the backstretch
5 degrees on the front stretch
Pit Road Speed:45 MPH
The Race: AAA Texas 500
334 Laps/ 501 Miles
Defending Champion: Jimmie Johnson, 136.117 MPH
Most recent winner: Kyle Busch, 144.751 MPH
Track Record: Greg Biffle, 160.577 MPH- April, 2012
Race Record: Tony Stewart, 152.705 MPH, November 2011
Qualifying record: Kyle Busch, 196.299 MPH, April 2013
TV:ESPN 3:00PM
Radio: PRN (www.goprn.com) Sirius XM Channel 90
The History:
April 11, 1995-Construction begins on the Texas Motor Speedway.
April 5, 1997-Mark Martin wins the first NASCAR sanctioned race at the facility.
April 6, 1997- Jeff Burton wins the first Cup series race at Texas. Qualifying for this event was cancelled due to weather issues.
April 1, 2001 – Dale Jarrett becomes the oldest race winner at 44 years, 4 months, 6 days
April 29, 2001- A 600 mile event for the CART series was to be held. More than 80% of the drivers complained of dizziness during practice for the event. CART cancelled the race two hours before the event was to begin.
March 30, 2003- Ryan Newman becomes the youngest winner at 25 years, 3 months, 22 days.
2005-Texas is given a second annual NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race.
2011-The spring race at Texas was moved to Saturday night, then back to a day race in 2014.
The Contenders:
Who do I think will have a shot to win at Texas?
Matt Kenseth: In order to win a race you have to be in contention to win. Kenseth leads all active drivers in top five finishes at Texas, and he also leads all drivers in laps led at the 1.5 mile quad oval. In 21 starts, Kenseth has two wins, 12 top fives, and 15 top tens.
Greg Biffle: Biff has two wins, 7 top fives and 11 tops tens to his credit at Texas, and he won here last year.
Jimmie Johnson: Right now, you certainly cannot pick against him. Tied for the point lead, Johnson’s record at Texas is just as good as anyone else’s with two wins, 9 top fives and 15 top tens.
Kyle Busch: As the winner of the spring race, Busch automatically gets the nod. He also has 6 top fives and 7 top tens in 16 starts.
Carl Edwards: It may be the House that Bruton Built, but it has been owned by Jack Roush. Nine of the twenty-five races that have been held here have been won by a Roush Fenway Ford, and three of them have come from Carl Edwards. Edwards has already seen resurgence this season, grabbing a win at Phoenix after a long dry spell, then backing it up with an oft overlooked win at Richmond. Texas would be the perfect place to keep the winning going for both Edwards and his car owner.
DARK HORSE PICK-Dale Earnhardt, Jr.- Jr has a win here but only three other top five finishes.
There are my picks for this week at Texas, but let’s look back and see how I did with my Martinsville picks.
Jimmie Johnson: Came home in 5th.
Dale Earnhardt, Jr: Finished 8th with a beat up car.
Kyle Busch: Finished in 15th.
Kevin Harvick: 6th place finish.
Jeff Gordon: Winner, winner, DuPont Dinner!
Dark Horse Pick: Mark Martin: 36th?
This week, my numbers are a win, a 5th, a 6th, an 8th, a 15th, and a dismal 36th.
Race Pro Picks
Before we get into this week’s picks, let’s look at last week’s results from Martinsville!
Player |
Selection |
Race Pts |
Previous Pts |
Total Pts |
Behind |
Wins |
DNFs |
Jim |
48 |
40 |
2251 |
2291 |
0 |
7 |
1 |
PattyKay |
24 |
47 |
2224 |
2271 |
20 |
3 |
2 |
Alabama |
48 |
40 |
2225 |
2265 |
26 |
1 |
1 |
Brian |
24 |
47 |
2207 |
2254 |
37 |
3 |
3 |
Mr. Seven |
11 |
38 |
2187 |
2225 |
66 |
0 |
0 |
Kevin |
11 |
38 |
2184 |
2222 |
69 |
2 |
5 |
Marshall |
29 |
38 |
2184 |
2222 |
69 |
0 |
0 |
My point lead shrunk to 20, and PattyKay Lilley leapfrogged Alabama Fitz to take over the second place in points after she correctly chose, along with Brian Marchetti, the correct race winner in Jeff Gordon. Can they continue to close the gap? Let’s find out…
JIM FITZGERALD: We're headed to Texas this week, and they say everything is bigger there. I hope that includes the racing action because I couldn't think of a better way to follow the gem of a race we had a Martinsville with another. We all had a good week at Martinsville, and now we're at it again. Carl Edwards has the win column topped here with three, while Matt Kenseth is Mr. Consistency with 12 top five finishes and 15 top tens to go along with two victories. Jimmie Johnson has two win, as Greg Biffle and Denny Hamlin have as well. Kyle Busch has the hot hand and won here in the spring. So, who do you pick? For me, this is an easy one. I feel like I could pick this driver for the rest of the season, and if things work out the way they COULD, then everything will take care of itself. In the dictionary next to the word "contrast" are two pictures. One of them is Matt Kenseth driving for Roush Fenway. The other is Matt Kenseth as well, but it is in the Joe Gibbs Racing stable. Kenseth firmed up his hand for the Championship yesterday by finishing second at a track where his average results were mediocre at best. This is, I believe, Kenseth's Championship to lose, and he's my pick for Texas.
PATTYKAY LILLEY: Yep, I've heard that thing about everything being bigger in Texas, and I'm guessing that also means the losses are bigger. Texas, in either configuration, with or without the weepers, has always and ever favored the cars of one maker and indeed, one owner. Jack Roush Fords rule Ft. Worth. It's as simple as that... not! Why not? Because the guy that drove the best of those Jack Roush Fords is now driving a Joe Gibbs Toyota and Jim already picked him.
ALABAMA FITZ: He does that. Congrats to everyone on a good week! I like the Kenseth pick and I know a Johnson pick would be appropriate in Texas also. After Martinsville, I feel a little like Gordon might feel: In third place, 20 something points behind and only three races to go. My pick is either going to gain some ground for me, or put me out of it completely. I'm not going to ride anybody’s coat tails. I looked at all concerned all the way down to Keselowski, but I won't spout them out. You're welcome, Mama!
PATTYKAY LILLEY: What is a poor girl to do? Stat-wise, as I know we'll hear, and hear, and hear from Fitz shortly, the next best guy is in a Jack Roush Ford and his name is Greg Biffle. Biff is in the Chase, but not having the best races of his life just now and is far removed from a chance to win the Championship. Ditto Carl Edwards, the "other" contending Ford from the Roush stable. The simplest thing would be to agree with Jim, which I do, but he got there first and the only way to catch him is to back someone else and pray a lot. Hey, it worked with Gordon! Therefore, despite all the logic on the side of several others, I'll be riding shotgun with a proven commodity, the guy that's tied with Matt the Brat for the overall point lead and has more than a little practice at winning Championships. Jimmie Johnson is my driver this week.
ALABAMA FITZ: This one is for Mama K. So
much to say, so little space. I'm
going with the driver that has more wins in fewer races here than anyone else,
including Matt and JJ. However, he has
two problems in Texas....his start / finish ratio isn't real good and he has
three DNFs. On the flip side, he is the
only three time winner here of all the contenders. I'm comin' in with
my six-shooters a-blazin'! I'm going "all in" this week, and
going for the upset. Here's hoping
"Bro. Carl" (as Mama K calls him) can hit the bull’s-eye and keep all
them pesky varmints in his rear view mirror. Edwards to win.
PATTYKAY LILLEY: Not a bad pick at all Fitz, and if intended, I love the little pun about the "flip side." It's "Cousin Carl" my friend. Carl is a full-blooded cousin to Kenny Schrader, and any kin of Ken is okay in my book. If those Fords were running just a bit better, I'd have been on one of them like a frog on a June bug, but they're not, so I opted for the one guy that can't seem to lose a Championship... mostly because his stats at the next two races are pretty mediocre, so this is his best chance to shine.
JIM FITZGERALD: I took a long hard look at Edwards as well, but something there just isn’t ringing for me. It’s that silly gut instinct, I guess, but I just don’t see a Ford pulling it off this week.
KEVIN ABRAHAM: I’m actually taking a Ford, and my pick is Brad Keselowski.
MGB: And I am taking Greg Biffle just because he’s fired up after his deal with Jimmie Johnson at Martinsville.
JIM FITZGERALD: Those are two interesting choices. Any particular reasons?
MGB: This is a 1.5 mile track, and that’s Biffle’s bread and butter.
KEVIN ABRAHAM: Well, my short list was Keselowski, Johnson, and Kasey Kahne. I quickly ruled out Kahne due to his bad luck the last few months. I then looked hard at Jimmie Johnson, but I can’t shake the 2009 fall race at this track where on lap 3 he wrecked, and ABC spent more time watching the team repair the car vs covering the race on track. I then looked at Keselowski. This driver has nothing to lose, and broke through with a needed win at Charlotte a few weeks ago. He also has been running better since the win, and is hungry for another win. Since there are only five contenders left for the championship, I figured that I would look outside the championship Chase to see who would still be a good fit as one of my short list drivers, then looked at two strong contenders in the Chase, and that is how I got my short list this week. If Tony Stewart was racing, he would have been on my short list instead of Kahne. I would be leery of picking Harvick the rest of this year after his meltdown after the truck race at Martinsville, and his lashing out towards RCR. This is not the first time Harvick has had issues with silver spoon drivers at that track. Anyone remember the spring 2002 race and his altercation with Coy Gibbs?
BRIAN K. MARCHETTI: How could we forget? I still remember him jumping over the car to get at Biffle at Bristol one year. Classic Harvick.
ALABAMA FITZ: That is the main reason I did not choose him or Kyle....and Kyle's record at Texas is something to consider, especially the ZERO DNFs out of 16 races here. Dale Jr. has a decent record here too, but his Start/Finish Ratio is almost a -3. This late in the season, I think those that have proven they can gain ground in a race would be at least considered, then weeded out, as I have done all year. But then again, I'm only in 3rd place.
JIM FITZGERALD: Kevin mentioned Kasey Kahne. I looked at him briefly, but it didn’t stick.
ALABAMA FITZ: While it's true Kahne has a win here, I wasn't sure which Kasey would show up. He was on my radar, but his Start/Finish ratio is almost a -7 and that scared me. Let's talk Brad for a second. At Martinsville, being out of the Chase, Brad could have done the "nice guy" move and let Jimmie Johnson by to race for the win. Clearly, Brad was better out of the turns but I think if JJ had gotten by, we may have had a more exciting finish.
KEVIN ABRAHAM: I think that would be against the 100% rule.
ALABAMA FITZ: I'm not saying he should have, I'm saying he COULD have. It was just an observation I made during the race. As far as Texas goes, his record isn't something I stayed on long, even though his Start/Finish ratio is almost a +4. You may have picked the right one this week, Kevin.
BRIAN K. MARCHETTI: Well, I'm happy with my Gordon pick from last week, and I was about due to guess at something right for a change!!! This week, as some of you may have seen on my Facebook page, I had lunch at my favorite Asian Restaurant today, and those infamous fortune cookies always have some Lucky Numbers on the back. Who would have thought this week could be so easy for me?
PATTYKAY LILLEY: And you still managed to pick last…go figure.
JIM FITZGERALD: I noticed that, too.
BRIAN K. MARCHETTI: So, I have the 5, 43, 24, 52, 17, and 11 as my choice Lucky Numbers, so let's take a look at my options. The 5 of Kasey Kahne isn't so impressive in Texas, with a 16.1 Average Finish over the last 10 races, and an 11th and 25th his last 2 times around this track. Kahne is always hit or miss for me, and this week, I'll avoid the miss. The 43 of Aric Almirola, well, if it was still King Richard, we could talk, but Aric did have a strong 7th place finish here this season, but a 19.6 Average Finish over his last 5 races here just doesn't light my fire. We move on the 24, and Jeff Gordon. Is there any chance for a "back to back victory?" I don’t know…, his 16.8 Average Finish in the last 10 races, and a 38th here this season, doesn't have me feeling all warm and fuzzy....sorry Jeff, I still love ya!!! As for the 52, brother Brian Keselowski had a run in a Toyota on this season's Opening Day at Daytona, with an impressive 21st place finish, but is not running this week in Texas...next. The 17 of Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is rapidly becoming a driver to watch in my eyes. Not everyone can be great fresh out of the gate, as some drivers have to take their time to start and keep running up front. Ricky will be a household name in a few years, in my opinion. His only finish here is a 40th this season, so we'll just move on. At last, the 11 of Denny Hamlin. He wasn't able to run here earlier this season, citing how he all but tried to kill himself at Fontana on March 24th, 2013, and missing out on 4 consecutive races. His 11.1 Average Finish in his last 9 races is the most impressive of my choices, but include a pair of finishes in the 20's, and a 12th and 15th place finishes in his previous 4 races. The 1st and 2nd's for Denny are a part of his past, and not impressing me today.
JIM FITZGERALD: So what does all of this mean?
BRIAN K. MARCHETTI: Not a damn thing...I just like to hear myself talk sometimes. I'm going with Kyle Busch, as I just try to pick up some points on my friends choosing JJ and Matt. It's a Win-Win with any of these 3 drivers this week. Look for pit stops and tire wear to be major factors this week.
PATTYKAY LILLEY: Brian, there's nothing wrong with picking Kyle Busch, most anywhere they're racing. He's a good, working toward great driver. Someone mentioned Harvick: When all that went on in the truck race, it was almost like being at an old-time free-for-all race at some dirt track... except the track was paved and the drivers weren't named Turner, Weatherly, Petty and such. Let's imagine for a moment that any one of those three was Harvick and some young snip comes up and boots him into the wall and out of the race. What happens next? The race may be over for one of those guys, but the schooling has just begun. That young snip... maybe named Yarborough or something like that... is about to learn the meaning of r-e-s-p-e-c-t, and that it tastes like fist.
(Group laughter)
PATTYKAY LILLEY: I've always seen Harvick as a somewhat hot-headed throwback to men like the ones mentioned, but which one of those would come out the next day with a danged apology? NONE! Try as they might, even the drivers that do have a personality are smothered from showing it. I have to admit, it's a bit surprising in Kevin's case. Not sure Budweiser would have too much objection to a good old fashioned fist fight under their banner, but then... it is a PC world we live in now.
JIM FITZGERALD: Agreed, and put so well, accented by “it tastes like fist!” So, there you have it, those are our picks for this week. We hope they help you and your racing team prospers. We wish you the best and will be back next week to recap this race and give our thoughts on Phoenix. Three races to go to determine a Champion!
And here’s a quote about Texas!!
“Some folks look at me and see a certain swagger, which in Texas is called ‘walking.’”- George W. Bush